A research report from a securities firm highlights that the accelerating commercial space sector is shifting human space development from single-point missions to large-scale infrastructure construction. The convergence of low-orbit satellite constellation deployment, continuous cost reduction from reusable rockets, and emerging scenarios like space-based computing entering engineering validation has made stable, efficient, and low-cost space energy supply a critical prerequisite for industry growth. The recent successful launch of the Long March 10B carrier rocket, along with its recovery verification, has further strengthened expectations for the accelerating maturity of domestic reusable rockets and declining launch costs. Space solar power, as the most mature in-orbit energy supply method, is evolving from a dedicated power source for spacecraft into a foundational space energy infrastructure, emerging as a key new industry linking commercial space, solar manufacturing, and AI computing power.

Space solar power is transitioning from a dedicated spacecraft power supply to a space energy infrastructure.

Space solar power represents the application of photovoltaic cells, space-grade packaging, solar arrays, and power management technologies in space scenarios. The batch deployment of low-orbit constellations and the concept of space-based computing are driving the shift toward standardized and large-scale delivery of space power supplies. Compared to ground-based solar power, space solar power offers advantages such as stable sunlight, in-situ energy supply, and low energy storage dependency. However, its large-scale application is currently constrained by launch costs, the space environment, in-orbit reliability, and thermal control capabilities. Overall, the industry is in an early stage of transitioning from a spacecraft power supply to a space energy infrastructure.

Low-orbit constellations drive incremental growth, high-reliability missions support the core base, and space-based computing unlocks long-term potential.

Projects such as Starlink, Amazon's Project Kuiper, China's SatNet, and the Qianfan Constellation are progressing, with low-orbit constellations, driven by their scale and continuous replenishment needs, representing the most certain near-term application scenario for space solar power. Missions in medium and high orbits, including communications, navigation, weather satellites, and deep-space exploration, are limited in number but demand higher longevity, radiation resistance, and system reliability, providing a stable source of demand for high-value space power supplies. Space-based computing is still in the engineering verification and industry planning phase, but its single-platform power demand is significantly higher than that of traditional satellites, making it the most critical variable determining the long-term space of the industry.

Technological routes are not a simple substitution but are determined by task scenarios, leading to layered penetration.

GaAs/III-V multi-junction cells, with their high efficiency, strong radiation resistance, and long flight heritage, will continue to play a dominant role in high-reliability missions such as high-orbit communications, deep-space exploration, and space stations. Crystalline silicon routes such as PERC, TOPCon, and HJT, leveraging mature supply chains, low costs, and batch manufacturing capabilities, are expected to be first introduced in cost-sensitive low-orbit constellations. Perovskite and perovskite/crystalline silicon tandem cells offer advantages such as high efficiency, high specific power, and flexibility but still require verification of large-area yield, space environmental stability, and in-orbit lifespan. The evolution of space solar power is expected to follow a path where "GaAs builds the high-reliability base, crystalline silicon routes drive cost reduction and volume scaling, and perovskite tandem cells unlock long-term potential," with the substitution process not being immediate.

The commercialization inflection point depends on the combined improvement of launch costs, specific power, and in-orbit lifespan.

Launch costs determine the per-unit-power entry threshold, lightweight and high specific power determine the scalability of large solar arrays, and in-orbit lifespan and reliability determine the full lifecycle economics. From 2026 to 2030, batch deployment of low-orbit constellations is expected to first drive large-scale delivery of space power supplies. From 2030 to 2035, further cost reductions from reusable rockets and in-orbit verification of crystalline silicon routes could lead to the demonstration and early commercialization phase of space-based computing. The commercialization of large-scale space energy systems, lunar bases, and space-based solar power stations for Earth-based energy supply is expected to be further off.

Multi-scenario demand resonance could drive rapid market growth as application scenarios expand.

Under a moderately optimistic scenario, global space solar power demand is projected to be approximately 0.18 GW in 2026, corresponding to a value space of about 57.2 billion yuan. By 2030, global demand could reach 20.90 GW, with a value space of approximately 1.32 trillion yuan. By 2035, global demand could reach 101.81 GW, with a value space of approximately 3.79 trillion yuan, including domestic demand of about 25.60 GW (value space of 0.95 trillion yuan) and overseas demand of about 76.21 GW (value space of 2.84 trillion yuan). It is important to note that the deployment scale of space-based computing, launch costs, and technological progress remain highly uncertain. Long-term estimates are more suitable as scenario-based analysis, and short-term orders should still be based on the actual launch pace of low-orbit constellations.

Investment focus should be on system entry points, technology migration, and equipment and materials.

At the investment level, three main lines are recommended: "system entry points, route migration, and equipment and materials." For system entry points, focus on system-level suppliers with aerospace model certifications, flight heritage, and space power system delivery capabilities, such as CETC Blue Sky. For technology migration, grasp the pace of technological evolution. In the short term, the GaAs high-reliability route will continue to benefit from high-value tasks like high-orbit satellites, deep-space exploration, and space stations, suggesting attention to companies like Yunnan Germanium, Qianzhao Optoelectronics, and Sanan Optoelectronics. In the medium term, the crystalline silicon cost-reduction route is expected to penetrate cost-sensitive low-orbit constellations first, leveraging mature supply chains, low costs, and batch manufacturing, suggesting attention to companies like Orient Solar, Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, and Junda Shares. In the long term, the perovskite and tandem route, with high efficiency, high specific power, and flexibility, could adapt to space-based computing and large-scale space energy systems, suggesting attention to companies like GCL Photoelectric, Jidian Guangneng, Xianna Optoelectronics, as well as LONGi Green Energy and Trina Solar, which are exploring tandem technologies. For equipment and materials, the space application of crystalline silicon and perovskite routes will drive demand for thinning, HJT/TOPCon equipment, TCO, silver paste, interconnection, and space-grade packaging materials, suggesting attention to companies like Maxwel, Jiejia Weichuang, Jinjing Technology, Juhe Materials, and Lushan New Materials.