As of the sixth working day of the current cycle, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are projected to be reduced by 225 yuan per tonne and 215 yuan per tonne respectively.

Converted to retail prices, 92-octane gasoline is expected to drop by 0.18 yuan per litre, while 95-octane gasoline and 0-diesel are both set to fall by 0.19 yuan per litre.

The estimated reduction in this round exceeds 0.15 yuan per litre, making a price cut highly probable and potentially bringing an end to the previous streak of three consecutive increases.

Current national average fuel prices stand at 8.59 yuan per litre for 92-octane gasoline, 9.17 yuan per litre for 95-octane gasoline, and 8.27 yuan per litre for 0-diesel, with 95-octane gasoline generally sitting in the 9-yuan range.

Should the adjustment take effect, 95-octane gasoline in many regions is expected to fall back into the 8-yuan range.

On the international market, oil prices edged higher on 9 October, with WTI and Brent crude posting modest gains, while the Shanghai crude oil SC contract spiked before pulling back to a slight loss.

Despite the modest rebound in overseas markets, the estimated decline in domestic fuel prices for this round has still widened slightly by 5 yuan per tonne.

There are 25 pricing windows in total for the full year of 2026, with 19 already concluded and 6 remaining, comprising 13 increases, 1 suspension, and 5 decreases — more rises than falls.

Gasoline and diesel prices have cumulatively risen by nearly 2,300 yuan per tonne, meaning filling a 50-litre tank now costs 90 to 100 yuan more than at the start of the year.

Under the refined oil pricing rules, the next fuel price adjustment will take place at midnight on 15 October (next Thursday).

Although the trajectory of fuel prices in this round has been full of twists and turns, a price cut is still expected.