Recently, a free short drama mini-program called "Green Bubble Short Dramas" quietly appeared on WeChat, operated by Tencent. On the mini-program's homepage, there is a dedicated "Green Bubble Short Dramas" section, or users can simply search "short drama" on WeChat to access it directly. Video Accounts support embedded episode jump links, and searching for related drama titles on QQ Browser also brings up recommendation slots. Users can complete the entire cycle from viewing to sharing within the WeChat ecosystem without needing to jump to any third-party product. A 36Kr screenshot shows that within the platform, users can perform almost the same actions as on Video Accounts: like, comment, favorite, forward to friends or groups, with support for floating window and picture-in-picture playback; the homepage bottom features a "Swipe" entry, where swiping up and down enters an immersive recommendation feed. Currently, Green Bubble's content covers three major categories: live-action dramas, AI dramas, and animated dramas. The homepage displays rankings such as Daily New Releases, Must-Watch This Week, Word-of-Mouth Rankings, and Trending Searches, along with "Friends Watching" based on acquaintance relationships and "Guess You Like" recommendation slots based on user preferences. These short drama contents are not produced by Tencent itself—Green Bubble adopts a "joint distribution" model, integrating episodes from external short drama mini-programs into its official content pool, without touching the production side. The business model is standard IAA: all episodes are free to watch, with ads inserted between episodes, and revenue comes from advertisers rather than user payments. Video Account clips are responsible for seeding and traffic generation, while the mini-program handles complete follow-up viewing and ad monetization. After Green Bubble's emergence, many short drama companies saw notable gains. On October 9, the Shenwan Media industry rose 5.28% in a single day, with a trading volume of approximately 54.3 billion yuan, and 15 stocks hitting the daily limit: Col Global Co., Ltd. (300364) and Mango Excellent Media Co.,Ltd. (300413) hit the 20cm limit, Huace Film & TV rose over 11%, Jiecheng Shares rose over 10%, and Xinhua Media, Shanghai Film, Zhangyue Technology, and Ciwen Media hit the 10cm limit. Internet media analyst Chen Zemin believes that Green Bubble's emergence brings a benign competitive signal to the market, creating a turning point for short drama CP companies whose bargaining power was extremely weak due to "Hongguo's dominance." Facing a competitor that already holds an absolute leading position in the short drama market, can Green Bubble eat Hongguo's fruit?

WeChat: From Opening a Mall to Opening a Self-Operated Store

Judging purely from the product and content itself, Green Bubble has no particular standout features. It didn't even have a launch event or teasers. Its biggest advantage may simply be that it is "WeChat's official short drama mini-program." Tencent has made short dramas before, but this is the first time WeChat has "personally" entered the fray. Previously, WeChat only played the role of infrastructure and channel—setting rules, opening traffic, and collecting service fees. Users who wanted to watch short dramas on WeChat could only do so through various CP companies' mini-programs and Video Accounts. In June last year, WeChat launched an official "short drama" mini-program, but it was merely a low-cost incremental channel within the free app landscape. In October 2026, that entry was replaced by Green Bubble. Zeng Xianru, founder of GrowData, a third-party research institution for the short drama industry, believes that given WeChat's past restraint in commercialization, this move can be understood as: the WeChat team finally recognizes that "short drama" belongs to "content," not just representing "traffic." "WeChat's previous role in the short drama market was 'opening the market and renting storefronts,' letting others sell their own goods inside. Now, it wants to open a self-operated store, and at this point, it's not just about traffic," Zeng said. "Running a mall and running a self-operated store are completely different businesses." Doing short drama products on WeChat has obvious advantages and disadvantages. Receiving friend messages while watching a drama can easily interrupt the experience. Also, WeChat's DNA is acquaintance-based social networking, and liking a drama lets friends know you're watching short dramas, creating psychological pressure when users give feedback. But "acquaintance-based social networking" has two sides. "There are bad dramas and good dramas. When you see a good drama, there's a need to forward it. The power of WeChat 'forwarding' is still a trump card," Zeng said. Green Bubble's homepage "Friends Watching" entry and one-click forwarding to group chats and friends are precisely the customer acquisition channels that standalone apps like Hongguo find hard to replicate—Hongguo relies on check-ins, tasks, and coin collecting to boost time spent, while Green Bubble can directly leverage WeChat's existing relationship chains. Zeng also believes that Green Bubble's current entry is still somewhat deep, "ideally it should be elevated to the first-level interface of 'Discover.'" The entry level determines the traffic ceiling, which is also a signal for observing WeChat's determination: Video Accounts was elevated step by step to the "Discover" page, and that's how it grew to today's scale. From early data, the product form's challenges haven't stopped users. WeChat disclosed that users watching through the Green Bubble official mini-program have viewing time about 5 times the overall average, and retention rate more than 2.5 times the overall average. The overall average refers to the overall data within the WeChat ecosystem, including third-party mini-program short dramas. Accompanying this is a quite sincere incentive policy. According to WeChat Open Platform's Q4 2026 "Micro Short Drama" mini-program incentive activity announcement, from October 16 to December 31, for high-quality new dramas uploaded within 7 days and ranking top 5 in daily monetization revenue with the highest user viewing time, they can enjoy a 100% high revenue share in the following 7 days. A WeChat announcement screenshot shows the assessment metric has changed from the industry-standard play count to average playback time per user—its orientation is also very "WeChat-style," encouraging long-term quality content that retains users, rather than fast-food short dramas that harvest clicks through hooks.

Hongguo's Moat, Green Bubble's Cards

To answer the question of "whether Green Bubble can shake Hongguo," one must first see Hongguo's position clearly before discussing "shaking." QuestMobile monitoring data shows that as of July 2026, ByteDance's Hongguo Short Drama standalone app had 168 million daily active users, a year-on-year increase of 107%—this figure already exceeds the sum of daily active users of the four major long video platforms: Tencent Video, iQIYI, Youku, and Mango TV (approximately 155 million). According to QuestMobile, in May 2026, Hongguo's monthly active users climbed to 356 million, with average daily usage time per user of about 125 minutes. Hongguo Short Drama's daily active users have exceeded the sum of the four major long video platforms (data source: QuestMobile, July 2026). Hongguo's lead is not just in user scale. On the ad投流 side, in the first half of 2024, Juliang Engine accounted for 73% of short drama ad spending, Tencent Ads accounted for 17%, and Kuaishou accounted for 8%; on the content side, Hongguo has signed long-term contracts with top production companies, making it difficult for new content to flow to other platforms. The "free viewing + ad revenue sharing" commercial loop, mature ad投流 industry chain, and gap-leading user mindshare together form its moat. Green Bubble isn't without cards either. QuestMobile's "2026 Short Drama Industry Insight Report" shows that short drama mini-programs within the WeChat ecosystem have reached 427 million monthly active users, exceeding the 335 million of standalone short drama apps overall. But the problem is that these 427 million are spread across different mini-programs, and no single mini-program is qualified to wrestle with Hongguo. Scattered traffic cannot gather bargaining power, which is precisely why WeChat wants to personally create an aggregation entry. WeChat short drama traffic is "number one in total, insufficient in aggregation" (data source: QuestMobile "2026 Short Drama Industry Insight Report," Hongguo data from May 2026). "Green Bubble is merely the last link in the chain, just one more playback platform, and it's far from the point of challenging Hongguo," Zeng said. He believes Green Bubble has at least two goals: externally, it can attract some short drama users from Hongguo. Internally, it can consolidate short drama viewing behavior scattered across the WeChat ecosystem into one place. "Even if Green Bubble cannot successfully compete with Hongguo, as long as it can get more WeChat users to watch dramas through a unified entry and make more content providers willing to jointly distribute, increasing WeChat's daily usage time, it is valuable," Zeng said. This is precisely the variable the industry has long awaited. According to DataEye Research Institute estimates, the micro short drama market size in 2026 is expected to exceed 121 billion yuan, of which free micro short dramas account for about 57.3 billion yuan. The market is large enough, but the distribution outlet has long had only one heavyweight player, Hongguo, and CP companies' bargaining power has been compressed to the extreme. Green Bubble offers the possibility of a second pole—even if it's just a limited-time incentive, the 90% cash revenue share condition is enough to make producers reconsider their platform choices. Zhang Jinhui, founder of short drama CP company Heyi, has already registered for Green Bubble and is currently taking a wait-and-see approach, planning to try it out first. Her first impression was that "the incentive policy is not bad." Of course, the window period is limited. The Q4 incentive only covers October 16 to December 31, and the revenue sharing rules after the event ends are unknown; WeChat's commercialization pace has always been restrained, and whether it is willing to spend heavily on user acquisition for Green Bubble remains to be seen. Green Bubble's current shortcomings are also clear: there are still many old dramas from 2024 on the rankings, exclusive high-quality new drama supply is insufficient, and the ad投流 chain is still being built. Another variable is AI short dramas. From Green Bubble's homepage rankings, AI short dramas and animated dramas account for a large share of the top-ranked works—this is more the result of a supply-side explosion. But WeChat's incentive assesses average playback time per user, and industry data generally shows that live-action short dramas outperform AI content in retention and completion rates. The mismatch between the shelf structure and what the platform truly wants will likely be gradually corrected under the incentive baton. The answer to the question at the beginning may be—"Green Bubble won't take away Hongguo's fruit, but it will take away traffic from other short drama mini-programs within WeChat." For Tencent, achieving this goal doesn't require defeating Hongguo. WeChat already has over 400 million monthly active short drama users; consolidating their scattered viewing time and ad value into one official entry is itself a viable big business; for the industry, one more level of distribution outlet means one more bargaining chip.