When Ron Baron sets his sights on a company, he doesn't dabble—he commits with overwhelming force. Throughout his tenure holding Tesla Motors, he weathered every stock decline, every controversy, and every round of Wall Street skepticism, ultimately generating billions in profits for his investors. For years, he has applied the same conviction to SpaceX.

Now, the latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission confirms he has backed up his words with action. According to data from GuruFocus, Baron Capital held 145.775 million shares of SpaceX as of June 30, 2026, with a market value of $24.9 billion. SPCX stands as the largest position in the $66.64 billion portfolio, representing 37.38% of total assets. The disclosed average cost basis is approximately $170.86 per share.

SPCX closed at $136.97 during the week of August 21, meaning Baron's position currently sits at a paper loss of roughly $34 per share. But as a seasoned trader, I've learned a fundamental truth time and again: the market's nature is to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient. In fact, the market rewards those who wait, not those who chase quick gains. This investor, who once rode out a drawdown of more than 50% in Tesla, is unlikely to waver in his conviction over such a dip.

Still, this holding report makes for fascinating reading.

Who is Ron Baron, and why his SpaceX bet fits his playbook

Ron Baron founded Baron Capital in 1982, starting with roughly $10 million under management. Today, the firm oversees tens of billions in assets. His investment philosophy is well-defined on Wall Street: buy growth companies with unassailable competitive moats, hold for at least five years, ignore short-term volatility, and maintain the position as long as the core thesis remains intact. He became famous for his Tesla investment. During the periods when bears were most vocal, production faltered, and Elon Musk even threatened to take the company private, Baron held firm, delivering massive returns for his investors.

According to an interview from December 2025, Baron attended Tesla's 2010 IPO roadshow and was impressed by Musk, but initially took only a small position, preferring to wait and see whether Tesla could hit its production targets. The same interview noted that between 2014 and 2016, seeing strong demand for the Model S, Baron Capital invested $400 million in Tesla stock at an average cost of roughly $43-$50 per share. The payoff? Baron's firm has realized and unrealized profits of approximately $8 billion from its Tesla position.

SpaceX is essentially Tesla in a different arena. Baron has been bullish on SpaceX in the private markets for years; following the company's IPO on June 12, this position has now appeared in public 13F filings for the first time. According to GuruFocus, his top five holdings are: SPCX at 37.38%, Tesla at 7.90%, MSCI at 2.70%, Arch Capital Group at 2.31%, and Hyatt Hotels at 2.12%. The SpaceX position is extraordinary—nearly five times larger than the second-largest holding—which itself speaks volumes.

Behind the $24.9 billion: Baron's bull case for SpaceX

SpaceX's second-quarter 2026 earnings, released on August 4, stripped away market noise and revealed the underlying fundamentals: revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year; net loss narrowed to $541 million, versus a $1 billion loss in the same period last year; adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, up 191% year-over-year; the connectivity segment, which includes Starlink, saw revenue growth of 66% and operating profit growth of 79%, driven by a doubling of Starlink subscribers; long-term cloud service contracts totaling $14.1 billion; multi-year contracts under the U.S. government's Starshield program worth more than $6 billion; cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of $100 billion at quarter-end; and a backlog of $47.5 billion in pending orders.

The company also announced a $60 billion acquisition of Cursor, an AI coding platform with 2.5 million developers, while SpaceX itself is already building one of the largest private AI computing clusters in the world. Capital expenditures in the second quarter reached a hefty $18.4 billion, with $15.8 billion directed toward AI-related investments. Baron isn't just buying a rocket launch business. His thesis: SpaceX is evolving into a global AI infrastructure heavyweight, while the already-profitable Starlink satellite internet business, growing at 66% annually, serves as the solid foundation for this investment.

Ron Baron's disclosed average cost for SPCX stands at approximately $170.86 per share.

The valuation debate, and why the bear case deserves attention

It's important to look at this objectively. Baron's $24.9 billion position is currently underwater, and the valuation concerns I've raised in previous articles are real. But remember, Baron is making a long-term bet. In my earlier coverage of SPCX, Peter Anderson, CEO of bearish firm Anderson Capital Management, stated that a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 50 times is "extremely high" for a company like this. Morningstar estimates its fair value at just $63 per share, less than half the recent trading price. The bear case doesn't dismiss Starlink's growth or question SpaceX's engineering prowess. The risks lie in the stock's trajectory: opening at $135 at IPO, surging to $225.64, then halving to its current $136.97; combined with massive quarterly capital expenditures of $18.4 billion, eight rounds of insider share unlocks through January 2027, and the yet-to-be-validated synergies of the $60 billion acquisition.

In Baron's valuation framework, he isn't pricing SpaceX based on 2026 current earnings. As his philosophy dictates, he prices it against the scale that Starlink and AI computing could achieve by 2030 and beyond. Media reports indicate that Baron expects SpaceX's market value to reach "at least $40 trillion" over the next 10-15 years, starting from its $2 trillion IPO valuation. This framework suits a holding period of five years or more, but it also means investors must endure massive short-term price swings. And for such volatility, Baron is well-accustomed. He named his dog "Big Mac" after his first successful stock pick. Having weathered years of skepticism around Tesla, a mere 20% pullback in a stock he positioned in before the IPO is hardly enough to shake his resolve.