Spot gold continued its upward momentum from the previous session on July 22nd, breaking through the $4,100 per ounce mark during the trading day, marking its first time above that level in a week. Following the strong rebound in international gold prices, gold-related stocks saw collective strength, with Shandong Gold-Mining (000975.SZ) and Zhaojin Mining (000506.SZ) hitting the daily limit-up, while stocks like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH) and Xiaocheng Technology (300139.SZ) also rose.

In the prior trading session, spot gold had briefly dipped below $4,000 before quickly rebounding to surpass $4,080 per ounce.

An analyst from Fubao Information, Huang Jiaqi, stated that the current gold market continues to follow the logic chain of "U.S.-Iran relations → oil price fluctuations → inflation outlook → Federal Reserve monetary policy." The recent rise in gold prices is primarily attributed to oil prices stabilizing after hitting technical resistance and as geopolitical tensions showed signs of easing marginally, leading the market to lower its expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, thereby providing short-term support for gold.

Huang further pointed out that U.S.-Iran tensions have yet to show significant easing, making it difficult for crude oil production and transportation in the Middle East to return to normal in the short term. Consequently, the medium-term pressure on gold from the inflation outlook persists. He noted that achieving a sustained gold rally will be challenging until a formal U.S.-Iran agreement is reached, unrestricted navigation is restored in the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices fall back to pre-conflict levels.

Dongfang Jincheng's analysis suggests that while the decline in June's inflation data alleviated pressure for an immediate July rate hike, it is insufficient to prompt a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy. The market has merely delayed the expected timing of a rate hike and has not shaken the core consensus of "higher rates for longer." Simultaneously, U.S.-Iran conflict and risks to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz have re-emerged as significant variables. If the situation escalates and drives oil prices higher, it could reverse the previous downward pull on inflation from energy prices, reigniting inflation expectations and subsequently putting downward pressure on gold. They anticipate gold prices will exhibit weak, range-bound fluctuations in the near term.

On July 1st, the World Gold Council released its "Mid-Year Outlook 2026 for the Global Gold Market" report, stating that after experiencing volatility since the start of the year, gold is entering a critical phase in the second half, with its performance jointly influenced by multiple uncertainties including geopolitics, interest rate environments, and investor sentiment. Looking ahead to the latter half of the year, the World Gold Council expects gold to continue acting as a barometer for the global macroeconomy. Unlike assets primarily driven by domestic factors, gold reflects the demand of global consumers, investors, and institutions.

Yuan Shuai, an expert with Zhongjing Media Think Tank and Deputy Director of the Investment Department at the China Academy of Urban Development, expressed the view that gold is likely to maintain a relatively strong operational pattern in the second half of the year. Although there will be multiple significant volatile pullbacks along the way, the overall price center is expected to continue rising steadily, resulting in a fluctuating upward trend.

However, Huang Jiaqi believes that the U.S.-Iran situation will remain an unavoidable key narrative for the second half, requiring focus on three aspects: first, the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections—if favorable for the Republican party, a potential tendency towards monetary easing could support gold; second, the implementation of U.S. global tariffs, which may stimulate safe-haven demand in the short term, push up imported inflation and hinder Federal Reserve rate cuts in the medium term, and potentially weaken economic growth in the long run due to high prices; third, U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and non-farm payrolls data. If CPI remains high while non-farm payrolls perform well, the Federal Reserve's policy scale would tilt more towards raising rates, thereby pressuring gold.

Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 14th showed that the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% year-over-year, lower than the market expectation of 3.8% and a clear decline from the previous 4.2%, yet still above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.

Overall, Huang Jiaqi stated that the trajectory for gold in the second half of the year still requires continued observation of changes in the international landscape. Given that the market has already priced in a certain degree of Federal Reserve rate hikes, he expects the year-end target price to have some room for increase from current levels, though it is relatively limited.