Rising risks of sustained conflict in the Middle East have pushed European natural gas prices higher, with reports also indicating that the United States is drafting plans to strike Iran.
Benchmark futures rose as much as 3.3% on Thursday, breaking above 80 euros per megawatt-hour, bringing the weekly gain to roughly 7%, while crude oil prices advanced in tandem.
Media outlets, citing two government officials, reported that the White House has asked the Pentagon to prepare options for strikes on Iran that could be carried out before next month's midterm elections.
The reports said the scale of the operation and the targets are still under discussion, with a limited strike possible first and a larger action after the elections.
Europe's gas storage facilities are currently only about 73% full, below levels seen in the same period in previous years.
With liquefied natural gas supply from the Gulf constrained, Europe has been forced to increase imports. If supply disruptions persist, market prices face the risk of further sharp spikes.
Leslie Palti-Guzman, founder of energy consultancy Energy Vista, said: "Ultimately, as long as the US and Iran hold fundamentally opposed positions on the future of this waterway, the Strait of Hormuz will experience intermittent supply disruptions."
Since the outbreak of US-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has been nearly blockaded, affecting about one-fifth of global LNG shipments, tightening supply and prompting buyers to compete for cargoes.
Although shipping volumes have recovered slightly recently, as winter demand picks up, any renewed disruption to Middle East shipping would push natural gas prices higher.
Patricio Alvarez, a senior analyst at industry research, noted in a report that despite some relief from mild weather in the short term, low inventories combined with continued disruptions to Gulf LNG could send European natural gas prices up 20% to 25% this winter.