It is rare for former President Donald Trump and Democrats to find common ground. However, in Tuesday's Texas Senate primary runoff, both sides desired the same outcome.
In this Republican runoff, Ken Paxton secured a decisive victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, the latest demonstration of Trump's firm grip on the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) base. Trump has previously secured similar wins against rivals in Indiana, Louisiana, and Kentucky. Yet, Democrats are equally pleased with this result. Trump's last-minute decision to endorse Paxton may provide James Talarico an opportunity to capture this Senate seat, a goal that has eluded Democrats in the "Lone Star State" for decades.
According to AdImpact data, the contest between Paxton and Cornyn became the most expensive Republican Senate primary in history, with Cornyn's camp alone spending nearly $100 million in an attempt to defeat the Trump-backed state attorney general. Nevertheless, Paxton weathered impeachment and scandal, ultimately winning the runoff with nearly 64% of the vote.
Paxton's substantial lead underscores the power of a Trump endorsement and the former president's ability to rally Republican support behind his preferred candidates. In the March primary, Cornyn held a narrow lead over Paxton, 42% to 40%, but as neither candidate surpassed the 50% threshold, a runoff was required.
Addressing supporters Tuesday evening, Paxton remarked on Trump: "When everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn't. Instead, he gave me his full support." He stated, "His support... is the most powerful force in politics." Paxton described Talarico as "a threat to everything we hold dear in this state and this country."
The risk for Republicans is that moderate and independent voters in the general election may be alienated by Paxton, potentially creating an opening for Talarico. Talarico, a seminary student and state legislator, has become a major fundraising figure for national Democrats, embodying their hopes to break a long losing streak in Texas. Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994.
Cornyn and national Republican groups inundated the airwaves with ads highlighting the various scandals from Paxton's career, ammunition that Talarico will certainly employ in the general election. Minutes after Paxton was declared the winner, the Cook Political Report shifted its general election rating for the state from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican."
Republican strategist Doug Heye said, "Trump and Republican primary voters value 'fight' over 'winning.' Paxton may win, but there are too many wrecked cars along the election highway like Herschel Walker, Todd Akin, and Richard Mourdock." Heye referred to previous Republican Senate candidates who faltered in Republican-leaning red states.
Talarico has demonstrated an ability to generate buzz in his campaign, discussing his Christian faith and offering sharp criticism of the Trump era. He raised $27 million in the first quarter of this year. In February, CBS canceled a planned interview of the Texas congressman by Stephen Colbert, an event that instead heightened attention on his candidacy.
In a video posted on social media, Talarico labeled Paxton "the most corrupt politician in America," revisiting the opponent's impeachment over allegations of bribery and abuse of power. He framed the Senate race as "the people versus Ken Paxton."
Republicans have dismissed Talarico as another inconsequential challenger, comparing him to former Representative Beto O'Rourke. The El Paso congressman once electrified Texas Democrats but ultimately lost the 2018 Senate election to Senator Ted Cruz.
Paxton now becomes the standard-bearer for Republicans, while some Senate Republicans are rebelling against Trump. They are angered by Trump's decision to abandon Cornyn, a popular member of the Senate Republican leadership with a political career spanning over three decades.
Senate Republicans resisted a Trump-backed $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization" fund, warning it could jeopardize approval of a $70 billion multi-year immigration enforcement funding package. Some lawmakers were also frustrated that Trump decided to endorse Paxton just days before the primary. This not only complicated advancing the president's agenda but also led to a tense closed-door meeting last week with acting Attorney General Todd Blanche.
"There were a lot of Republican senators who were very angry," Cruz recalled of that meeting on his podcast. Cruz remained neutral in the primary until announcing his support for Paxton after Tuesday's results.
In the coming days, Republicans will face the practical question of how strongly they will rally around Paxton. Paxton leveraged the attorney general's office to aggressively advance a right-wing agenda and publicly questioned Cornyn's loyalty to the president's agenda, propelling him to stardom within the MAGA movement.
In his endorsement statement, Trump praised Paxton as a "true MAGA warrior." While calling Cornyn a "good guy," Trump stated Cornyn "didn't support me in the tough times." He also noted Cornyn was "late to support" his 2024 presidential campaign.
In March, Trump came close to endorsing Cornyn. However, Paxton then pressured Cornyn to push the Senate to vote on a bill called the SAVE America Act, a Trump priority, leading the former president to pause his endorsement decision.
Nevertheless, the Senate Republicans' campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, attacked Paxton with negative ads highlighting his impeachment, legal troubles, and pending divorce. These controversies include allegations by a senior aide of abuse of power, which he denied; a securities fraud indictment resolved through a pretrial agreement; impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House, later resulting in acquittal; and accusations of infidelity by his wife, leading to an ongoing divorce proceeding.
In a statement Tuesday evening, the National Republican Senatorial Committee did not mention Paxton by name but pointedly stated, "In a state President Trump won by nearly 14 points, voters are not going to vote for James Talarico."
Paxton's decisive victory adds another win to Trump's endorsement record. Trump has previously successfully ousted several intra-party dissenters, including Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict him in the 2021 impeachment trial; Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie; and a group of Indiana senators opposing Trump's redistricting plans. In these primaries, Trump's endorsement of challengers proved pivotal.
Cornyn conceded to Paxton and stated he would support the Republican ticket. Cornyn said, "My hope is for my party to be in power for generations. I'm an optimist by nature, in other words, I'm a Texan."