The global DRAM industry is experiencing its strongest cyclical boom in history, according to data from Group Intelligence. In the first half of 2026, the total revenue of the world's leading DRAM manufacturers reached $284.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 300%. This explosive growth is fueled by a surge in demand from AI servers for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and high-end DDR5, coupled with a voluntary reduction in mature consumer-grade production lines by top overseas manufacturers. This has created a persistent supply-demand imbalance, driving a leapfrog increase in revenue across the entire industry chain.

AI Drives H1 Revenue Surge; Divergent Manufacturer Strategies Widen Performance Gaps

In the first half of 2026, the DRAM industry's revenue was characterized by a 'quarter-over-quarter increase and a massive year-on-year surge.' AI computing demand emerged as the core engine for the entire sector, pushing industry-wide profitability to record highs. In the first quarter of 2026, the combined revenue of the world's top four DRAM manufacturers was $89.26 billion. This figure rose to approximately $139.51 billion in the second quarter, bringing the total first-half revenue to an estimated $228.77 billion. This represents a staggering year-on-year growth of about 312.5% compared to the first half of 2025. While all companies experienced multi-fold growth, ChangXin Memory Technologies (688825.SH) led with a year-on-year increase of 503.9%. Samsung, Micron Technology (MU.US), and SK Hynix also saw growth rates exceeding 200%. The demand structure has fundamentally shifted. Group Intelligence estimates that in 2026, AI server DDR and HBM will together account for approximately 34.9% of total demand, a significant jump from 20.5% in 2025. Conversely, demand for DRAM from traditional consumer electronics like smartphones and PCs continues to decline. The industry's growth logic has completely transitioned from being consumer-driven to being compute-driven. The supply-demand ratio for the first half of the year was as low as -5.7%, indicating a structural supply gap that persisted throughout the period. The high premium for HBM and rising prices for server DDR5 chips have driven a substantial improvement in gross margins for all manufacturers.

Amid the overall high growth, Group Intelligence's analysis reveals significant divergence in revenue and capacity performance among the four major manufacturers, with each charting a distinct growth path based on its own industry chain layout. Samsung recorded cumulative DRAM revenue of $94.18 billion in the first half of the year, ranking first globally. Its Q1 revenue was $35.63 billion, which surged to approximately $58.55 billion in Q2, a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 64.3%. Samsung's global DRAM capacity share remained stable at around 35% in H1, solidifying its industry leadership. Its core strategy involves actively optimizing its product mix. Throughout H1, it continuously reduced capacity for older processes at its Line 13, 15, and 17 facilities, cutting output of low-end DRAM for smartphones and PCs. This freed up capacity to be redirected towards high-margin server DDR and HBM, prioritizing the mass production and delivery of HBM3E and server DDR5. Samsung did not add significant new wafer capacity for the year, instead relying on increasing the revenue share of high-value-added products to drive growth. A drawback is the continued loss of market share in consumer memory, leading to weak supply elasticity for general DDR products.

SK Hynix posted cumulative DRAM revenue of approximately $64.75 billion in the first half, securing the second position. Its Q1 revenue was $28.01 billion, rising to about $36.74 billion in Q2, a quarter-on-quarter increase of roughly 31.2%. SK Hynix maintained a global DRAM capacity share of over 30% in H1. Its growth was driven by a dual-track model centered on its dedicated HBM production line. In Q2 2026, its M15X dedicated high-end HBM production line officially began mass production and continued its ramp-up, making SK Hynix the global leader in HBM shipments. This became the core support for its revenue and profit growth. Its overseas C2 mature production line in Wuxi, China, maintained stable capacity, acting only as a buffer for consumer memory cycles without additional capital expenditure on mature nodes. This dual-track strategy of 'domestic high-end HBM plus overseas general-purpose memory' continues to widen its profitability gap with competitors.

Micron generated cumulative DRAM revenue of roughly $50.15 billion in H1, ranking third. Its Q1 revenue was about $18.77 billion, while Q2 revenue increased by 67.2% quarter-on-quarter to approximately $31.38 billion. Micron maintained a global DRAM capacity share of around 18% during H1, remaining relatively stable. Micron's core strategy involves a balanced development across two tracks: long-lifecycle memory products (such as automotive-grade) and AI memory. It has initiated a specialized conversion project at its domestic Fab 6 facility, gradually shifting capacity towards long-lifecycle products for automotive, industrial, and defense applications, with plans to eventually exit the consumer market. Concurrently, its advanced Fab 15 and OMT production lines continue to ramp up capacity for HBM and server DDR5. Unlike its Korean rivals, Micron has not proactively reduced mature process capacity, resulting in a noticeably faster overall expansion pace. Long-lifecycle memory products, like automotive-grade, can offset the pressure from declining consumer electronics demand, making the company's performance fluctuations relatively smoother. However, limited by a smaller scale of high-end HBM capacity compared to Samsung and SK Hynix, Micron's profit elasticity from AI computing-related businesses has a significant ceiling.

ChangXin Memory Technologies achieved cumulative revenue of approximately $19.69 billion in the first half of the year. Its global DRAM capacity share increased from 14% in 2025 to 15.8% in H1 2026, driven by continuous capacity expansion. The company's core growth strategy is counter-cyclical expansion combined with import substitution. As the only DRAM manufacturer globally to consistently expand capacity in 2026, its quarterly capacity growth rate has long been above 10% (compared to a 0-10% quarterly growth range for overseas manufacturers). Its advanced Fab 2 production line continues to ramp up, enabling stable mass production of DDR5 and small-batch introduction of HBM. This output is targeted for domestic IT infrastructure and AI computing servers. ChangXin is capturing general-purpose memory market share through relentless capacity expansion, achieving the highest revenue growth rate in the industry. However, it still lags behind international leaders in high-end HBM process technology and capacity scale.

Overall, Group Intelligence's analysis identifies the core differences among the four manufacturers as lying in four dimensions: capacity scale, product differentiation, technology generation, and strategic focus. Samsung leverages its scale and full product line to solidify its share, strengthening strategic cooperation with CSPs, especially ASIC and NPU customers. SK Hynix achieves high growth rates thanks to its dedicated HBM line ramp-up. Micron grows via a dual-track approach of automotive memory and AI computing. ChangXin boosts revenue and profit through mass production of domestic general-purpose memory. In terms of capacity, Samsung is shrinking mature lines while prioritizing advanced processes; SK Hynix is ramping its HBM line and stabilizing mature lines; Micron is converting lines for long-lifecycle products while simultaneously expanding computing capacity; and ChangXin is continuously ramping new lines for full-process expansion. Key advantages are: Samsung leads in revenue scale and full-category layout; SK Hynix is the top HBM shipper with strong profit elasticity; Micron offers strong operational stability and risk resistance; and ChangXin leads in growth rate, diversifying products and increasing share. Conversely, each faces weaknesses, including losing consumer memory share (Samsung), insufficient general DDR supply (SK Hynix), and technology generation gaps in HBM (Micron).

H2 2026 DRAM Boom Continues; Manufacturer Divergence to Intensify

In the second half of 2026, the DRAM industry's strong momentum will persist, with quarterly revenue continuing to climb and the divergence among manufacturers becoming more pronounced. Group Intelligence estimates that total revenue for the top DRAM manufacturers in Q4 2026 will be double that of Q1 2026, creating a 'rising quarter-over-quarter' trend for the full year. Projected cumulative revenue for the second half is approximately $345.17 billion, a 50.9% increase over the first half of 2026. SK Hynix is expected to lead the industry in revenue growth for H2, driven by HBM order fulfillment and shipments. Regarding capacity deployment, Samsung has no new fab coming online for the full year and will continue optimizing its existing line structure. Its DRAM capacity share in H2 is expected to fluctuate slightly around 36%. SK Hynix will continue ramping its M15X Fab for high-end HBM, while its overseas Wuxi fab maintains stable capacity for the year. Its H2 capacity share is forecast to be stable at around 31%. Micron will continue to convert and expand its advanced OMT computing line, laying the foundation for medium-to-long-term high growth. Its H2 capacity share is expected to slightly decrease to around 17%. ChangXin Memory, relying on its new capacity ramp-up throughout the year, is projected to see a year-on-year capacity increase of about 12.8%. Its quarterly expansion rate will continue to lead overseas peers, with an H2 capacity share maintaining growth at around 16%.

On the supply-demand and pricing front, the structural supply gap is expected to persist in H2 2026. The full-year supply-demand ratio will remain negative, with no significant easing of the tight market. DRAM prices will maintain an upward trend throughout the year, though the continuous cost pressure on downstream end-users is expected to cause a gradual narrowing of price increases.

HBM Supply Race; Top Manufacturers' Capacity Shares Shift

As the fastest-growing storage product in the DRAM segment, differences in HBM capacity layout are the core factor driving performance divergence among Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. In the first half of 2026, SK Hynix maintained its leading position in global HBM capacity, holding 48% and 49% shares in Q1 and Q2, respectively. The continuous ramp-up of its dedicated M15X line allowed it to stably command nearly half of the supply, deeply integrating with AI computing clients. This ample capacity enables it to fully capitalize on the current industry boom. Samsung continued its HBM capacity expansion, maintaining a share in the 28%-30% range during H1. It steadily increased the supply of HBM3E and HBM4, leveraging its mature DRAM manufacturing system to optimize stacking processes. Its medium-to-long-term capacity release pace is stable. Micron's HBM capacity share remained stable in the 22%-23% range, with a relatively conservative expansion pace for its high-end HBM stacking lines, resulting in a capacity scale significantly lower than its two Korean counterparts. In terms of trends, SK Hynix's capacity share is gradually declining from its 2025 peak, Samsung's share is steadily rising, and Micron is slowly expanding. The supply landscape among the three is undergoing a gradual restructuring. Currently, all three manufacturers have robust medium-to-long-term order books, with capacity largely pre-sold. The overall industry supply remains tight, and the gaps in HBM capacity layout will continue to impact each company's profitability.

DRAM Landscape Reshaped; HBM Becomes a Long-Term Barrier, Overseas & China Directions Diverge

In the first half of 2026, AI computing demand completely reshaped the growth logic of the global DRAM industry. The divergence in manufacturer strategies directly led to differences in operational performance: the Korean duo locked in high-margin product lines by adjusting capacity structures in advance for server computing demand. Micron achieved stable growth through a balanced layout. ChangXin Memory steadily increased its share and revenue through counter-cyclical expansion. In the second half of 2026, the industry's strong momentum will continue, with quarterly revenue climbing higher, expected to peak in Q4. Total capacity from overseas manufacturers will increase only slightly, with the increment primarily concentrated in HBM and server DDR. ChangXin Memory's supply increase will accelerate the domestic substitution process in China. Over the long term, a large-scale advanced HBM capacity reserve has become a core competitive barrier in the DRAM industry. Memory manufacturers capable of mass-producing HBM will continue to control industry pricing power and key cloud service clientele. Meanwhile, the overseas and Chinese DRAM markets will pivot towards two major directions: high-end storage and domestic autonomous supply, respectively.