Weekly oil data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on October 7 showed that commercial crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ended October 2, while refinery capacity utilization rose to 92.7%. Gasoline inventories edged higher over the same period, and distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, were broadly unchanged and remained about 12% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Refinery crude runs in the United States averaged 16.48 million barrels per day that week, an increase of 223,000 barrels per day from the prior week, while capacity utilization rose 0.2 percentage point from the previous week. Crude imports and exports both expanded. Daily imports rose by 1.142 million barrels to 6.84 million barrels, and exports increased by 1.195 million barrels to 4.765 million barrels. Because the gain in exports slightly outpaced the rise in imports, net crude imports fell by 53,000 barrels per day to 2.075 million barrels per day. Commercial crude inventory figures exclude the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. After this week's decline, commercial crude stocks were still about 1% above the five-year average. Total commercial petroleum inventories, including crude and refined products, fell by 6.9 million barrels.

Before the official data were published, estimates released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on October 6 showed a decline of 2.09 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories for the same week. Both sets of figures pointed to a drawdown in crude stocks, with the EIA reporting the larger decrease.

Gasoline inventories rose by about 400,000 barrels to 204.7 million barrels that week but remained roughly 6% below the five-year average, while distillate stocks were little changed at about 105.1 million barrels. Refinery gasoline output was 9.3 million barrels per day, and distillate production rose to 5.3 million barrels per day.

In terms of product supplied, a proxy for demand, total U.S. petroleum product supplied averaged 21.1 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up 0.7% from a year earlier. Gasoline supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels per day, down 0.3% year on year, and distillate supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels per day, down 1.6% from a year earlier. Even as refinery processing increased, the four-week average supply of both major fuels remained below year-earlier levels.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook released on October 6, the EIA projected that the average U.S. diesel retail price would remain above $6 per gallon in October before gradually declining as crude prices ease and inventories recover modestly. The agency expects distillate inventories to remain below the 2021-2025 average over the forecast period, keeping diesel refining margins elevated.