Debon Securities has released a research report indicating that the inflection point for solid-state battery industrialization is approaching. The firm recommends prioritizing upstream segments with high certainty: first, equipment manufacturers, focusing on dry electrode and isostatic pressing technologies where value enhancement is significant; second, material suppliers, concentrating on core incremental materials such as sulfide electrolytes and silicon-based anodes. For the medium to long term, the report suggests focusing on integrated battery leaders with strong core technology reserves and deep partnerships with top automakers.

Industry development is being driven by a confluence of policy support and capital investment, with 2027 emerging as a pivotal year. Against the backdrop of global low-carbon energy transformation, traditional liquid lithium batteries are gradually approaching theoretical limits in energy density and safety. Solid-state batteries offer multiple advantages, including enhanced safety, superior energy density, a wide temperature adaptation range, and longer cycle life, positioning them as the core next-generation energy storage technology route. From a policy perspective, a comprehensive support system has been established from the top down. Since 2025, policy design has accelerated, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology designating solid-state batteries as a key攻关 direction, the National Energy Administration clarifying efforts to develop long-life, wide-temperature-range critical equipment, and the Ministry of Finance introducing differentiated consumption tax policies that exempt solid-state batteries from consumption tax from September 2026 to the end of 2028. Meanwhile, provincial and municipal governments are actively responding with local industrial policies, with Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhuhai among those launching special plans, allocating funds, and establishing research platforms to tackle core solid-state battery technologies. On the capital front, investment and financing activity in the sector continues to heat up, with over 40 investment projects in the solid-state battery field in the first half of 2026 alone. Multiple industry funds have been established, covering everything from key material research and development to full industry chain mergers and acquisitions, providing ample capital support for technological engineering and industrial upgrading. Regarding mass production timelines, industry consensus is forming around a clear path from semi-solid to all-solid-state batteries. The industry generally expects semi-solid-state batteries to enter the commercialization cycle first in 2026, and by 2027, leading companies including CATL, BYD, and Gotion High-Tech plan to achieve small-batch production or demonstration vehicle installations of all-solid-state batteries, significantly accelerating the pace of industrialization.

Three main technical routes are competing, with sulfide-based technology likely to become the long-term ultimate solution. The solid-state battery technology landscape is divided into sulfide, oxide, and polymer categories. The oxide route, leveraging its high mechanical strength and chemical stability, is the preferred option for the semi-solid-state battery transition period, with leading companies like CATL and QingTao Energy already achieving vehicle installation verification. The polymer route offers good flexibility but suffers from low room-temperature conductivity, making it more suitable as auxiliary support in flexible scenarios. The sulfide route boasts the highest room-temperature ionic conductivity (reaching 10⁻² S/cm levels) and a wide electrochemical window, making it the most suitable for high-energy-density and fast-charging vehicle requirements, representing the long-term core track for all-solid-state batteries.

Application scenarios will see layered penetration across the downstream market, with automotive and energy storage forming the foundation while low-altitude economy and robotics sectors may see earlier volume adoption. The report argues that solid-state battery commercialization follows the logic of "high-cost-tolerant niche scenarios leading first, with the mass market expanding as costs decline." In the short term, future industry scenarios such as the low-altitude economy, embodied intelligence, and commercial aerospace are expected to be the first to land. In the medium to long term, new energy vehicles and energy storage will constitute core demand. New energy vehicles account for approximately 70% of demand, with Hainan's 2030 ban on fuel vehicle sales opening regional growth. Energy storage is expected to account for 15%-20%, with safety and long-cycle attributes highly matching the hard requirements of the energy storage industry, leaving ample room for long-term demand growth.

Industry chain value is expected to be released in stages, with equipment and materials benefiting first. On the equipment side, the introduction of new processes such as dry electrode, isostatic pressing, and lamination will require production line modifications of up to 80%-90%. Equipment value per GWh is approximately 3-5 times that of liquid batteries, making this segment the first to benefit from the peak in pilot and mass production line construction, with impressive market growth. On the material side, solid-state electrolytes (especially sulfides) and silicon-based anodes are the core incremental segments. As the industry transitions from semi-solid to all-solid-state, the electrolyte shipment structure is likely to undergo a fundamental reversal. Silicon-based anodes, with their high specific capacity, are becoming the mainstream anode choice and are expected to see rapid market expansion. On the cell side, manufacturing barriers are the highest, and leading battery companies are expected to dominate the market landscape long-term through their technological accumulation and scale advantages.

Key risks include potential delays in core technology breakthroughs such as solid-state electrolyte interface impedance, domestic industrialization facing patent layout challenges, competition from other new energy storage technology routes, and downstream demand falling short of expectations.