Everbright Securities has released a research report indicating that excavator export sales maintained rapid growth in July 2026. With price hikes for excavators, cranes, and other products taking effect across major manufacturers, the intense domestic competition in the construction machinery sector is expected to reverse, potentially boosting the profitability of equipment makers.
The brokerage remains optimistic about the ongoing replacement cycle in construction machinery as a key driver of sales volumes, noting that the industry benefits from favorable short-term catalysts. Proactive fiscal policies are anticipated to stimulate infrastructure investment, ensuring sustained mid-term demand recovery. Additionally, as the sector progresses toward internationalization and electrification, alongside rising demand for mining machinery, leading construction machinery companies are poised to achieve simultaneous growth in both volume and profitability.
July excavator sales continue upward trend, with equipment replacement demand gradually unfolding
In July 2026, China's total excavator sales, including exports, reached 19,521 units, up 13.9% year-on-year. Domestic sales accounted for 7,608 units, reflecting a 4.1% increase. For the January-July period, cumulative excavator sales, including exports, totaled 171,841 units, a 24.8% rise, with domestic sales of 86,633 units up 18.8%.
Domestic excavator sales extended their growth trajectory in July, and Everbright Securities expects the ongoing equipment replacement cycle to continue supporting sales volumes through the year. The previous industry cycle saw excavator sales surge from the bottom in late 2015 before peaking in early 2021. Given that construction machinery typically has a service life of 8-10 years, the firm estimates a compound annual replacement growth rate of approximately 30% for domestic machinery from 2026 onward, which should provide robust support for future excavator sales. Furthermore, the substantial export of second-hand machinery to developing markets has effectively reduced the domestic installed base, another factor underpinning new equipment sales.
Manufacturers roll out price hikes, signaling a potential reversal in industry competition
On August 7, 2026, XCMG announced a 2% price increase across its full product line in the southwest region, effective August 15. This follows similar price adjustment notices for excavators and cranes issued by major players including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Liugong, and Shantui. The price increases are primarily driven by rising upstream raw material costs, but they fundamentally reflect the sustained recovery in domestic demand and the improving competitiveness of domestic manufacturers.
As these price adjustments take effect, the construction machinery industry's intense price competition is expected to shift toward value-based competition, enabling manufacturers to achieve both higher volumes and improved pricing.
Strong policy funding support ensures sustained domestic demand recovery
On the funding front, the 2026 Government Work Report proposes allocating 755 billion yuan for central budget investment and 800 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for major national strategies and security capacity building. An additional 200 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is earmarked for large-scale equipment upgrades.
Everbright Securities views equipment renewal as the core driver of the current construction machinery recovery. As these funds are gradually deployed, the equipment replacement process is expected to accelerate, providing strong support for the industry's continued recovery. Meanwhile, the commencement of major projects such as the Yaxia hydropower project is anticipated to further stimulate demand growth, ensuring sustained domestic demand recovery.
July excavator exports continue to climb, offering vast overseas expansion opportunities
Excavator exports reached 11,913 units in July 2026, up 21.2% year-on-year, bringing the January-July total to 85,208 units, a 31.7% increase. The 2026 Government Work Report emphasizes further expanding high-level opening-up and strengthening coordination with Belt and Road Initiative countries.
China's construction machinery exports in 2026 face both opportunities and challenges, including shifting dynamics in the Middle East, rising infrastructure and mining machinery demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America, and growing penetration in high-end European and American markets. As leading manufacturers intensify their overseas expansion efforts, China's construction machinery exports are expected to maintain their growth trajectory.
Electric loader sales surge in July, accelerating industry electrification
Electric loader sales reached 4,078 units in July 2026, up 70.6% year-on-year, with the electrification rate hitting 34.6%, an 8.1 percentage point improvement. For January-July, electric loader sales totaled 29,523 units, up 80.6%, with an electrification rate of 31.5%, up 9.3 percentage points year-on-year.
The 2026 Government Work Report calls for accelerating the elimination of outdated production capacity and supporting innovation and application of green, low-carbon technologies. Everbright Securities believes that green and electric solutions represent key future directions for the construction machinery industry. Domestic manufacturers are leveraging the electrification wave to gain competitive advantage, and the accelerated adoption of electric machinery is expected to further enhance revenue and profitability for equipment makers.
Forklift sales maintain growth, with smart logistics unlocking new potential
Forklift sales across all categories reached 147,839 units in July 2026, up 24.6% year-on-year. Domestic sales totaled 85,608 units, including 1,139 AGVs, up 22.8%, while exports reached 62,231 units, including 41 AGVs, up 27.2%. For the January-July period, total forklift sales reached 1,009,773 units, up 17.7%, with domestic sales of 629,457 units, including 6,555 AGVs, up 15.3%, and exports of 380,316 units, including 593 AGVs, up 22.0%.
The rapid development of robotics and artificial intelligence is driving higher adoption of unmanned forklifts. According to the 2026 Unmanned Forklift Application Scenario Map, China's unmanned forklift sales reached 32,000 units in 2025, up 30.6% year-on-year, yet penetration remains just 2.2%, indicating substantial market growth potential.
Mining machinery sector maintains strong momentum, offering broad growth prospects for domestic manufacturers
Driven by rising global mining capital expenditure, expansion in emerging markets, and trends toward intelligence and electrification, the mining machinery sector continues to experience robust activity, with mining equipment companies sustaining high revenue and order levels. Industry data shows the global mining machinery market was valued at approximately $123 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $160.3 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of about 5.4%.
According to the 2025 Global Top 50 Mining Equipment Manufacturers, total sales of these companies reached $76.66 billion, with Chinese enterprises accounting for $14.72 billion, or 19.2% of the total. Compared to international leaders such as Caterpillar and Komatsu, Chinese mining machinery companies still have significant room to expand their global market share. Everbright Securities believes mining machinery represents a crucial growth avenue for construction machinery companies. With increasing global mining capital expenditure, the continued international expansion of Chinese mining enterprises, and improving product capabilities, domestic manufacturers are well-positioned to substantially increase their share in the mining machinery sector.
Risk analysis
Key risks include infrastructure investment falling short of expectations, weaker-than-anticipated overseas exports, intensified industry price competition, uncertainty surrounding US-China tariff policies, and exchange rate fluctuations.