On May 15, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that for the week ending May 9, seasonally adjusted initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 12,000 to 211,000. This figure was slightly higher than the 205,000 expected by economists in market surveys but remained within a historically low range. The four-week moving average edged up by 750 to 203,750, indicating that the employment foundation remained solid after smoothing out short-term fluctuations. Analysts noted that the slight weekly overshoot was insufficient to alter the market's assessment of the overall resilience of the labor market. The claims report also showed that for the week ending May 2, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits after their initial claim—a key indicator of hiring conditions—rose by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.782 million. The increase in continuing claims suggests a slight deceleration in the re-employment rate for the unemployed, though it remains well below historical warning levels. Markets will closely monitor whether this indicator will continue to climb in the coming weeks—a breach of the 1.8 million threshold could signal a substantive cooling in corporate hiring intentions.

Additionally, Kansas City Fed President Schmid stated on Thursday that despite the U.S. economy demonstrating "remarkable resilience" in the face of multiple challenges, inflation remains the most significant risk to the current economic outlook, while the overall job market remains stable. Schmid, in a speech prepared for a banking conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed, remarked, "I believe persistent inflation is the most pressing risk to the U.S. economy at present." He noted that although inflation has retreated significantly from its peak, based on his discussions with business leaders in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, price levels remain too high. Schmid is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year and thus did not directly comment on future interest rate moves. However, analysts pointed out that his continued emphasis on inflation risks indicates he remains within the Fed's relatively hawkish camp, meaning he does not support premature interest rate cuts while inflation remains above target.

Data to watch today include the U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index for May, Canada's Manufacturing Sales Month-over-Month for March, and U.S. Industrial Production Month-over-Month for April.

Gold / U.S. Dollar Gold edged lower in choppy trading yesterday, closing slightly down for the day and currently trading around 4570. Besides the renewed expectations for Fed rate hikes continuing to weigh on gold, renewed tensions in the Middle East sparking inflation concerns also contributed to the downward pressure. Additionally, rising U.S. Treasury yields exerted some selling pressure on gold. Support is seen near 4500 today, with resistance around 4650.

Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar The Australian dollar declined in volatile trade yesterday, closing marginally lower and currently trading near 0.7170. Apart from profit-taking exerting some downward pressure, the U.S. dollar index's advance—supported by factors such as renewed expectations for Fed rate hikes—also contributed to the Aussie's weakness. Furthermore, heightened market risk aversion added to the selling pressure on the currency. Resistance is anticipated near 0.7250 today, with support around 0.7100.

U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar The U.S. dollar rose against the Canadian dollar in seesaw action yesterday, closing slightly higher and currently trading around 1.3750. The primary driver was strength in the U.S. dollar index, fueled by safe-haven demand and robust economic data rekindling expectations for Fed rate hikes. However, gains were capped by rising crude oil prices. Resistance is eyed near 1.3850 today, with support around 1.3650.