On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index led declines, with stocks broadly falling in the afternoon and weak profit-making effects, as repair expectations built up before the holiday were quickly digested.

In terms of structure, capital withdrew from highly crowded tech hardware, with semiconductors, optical modules, and communications equipment declining; meanwhile, defensive and pro-cyclical sectors such as banks, shipping, utilities, coal, and oil and gas strengthened against the trend, with banking and shipping leaders even hitting historic highs, and low-position themes like solid-state batteries also performing actively, showing a clear high-low switching in the market.

Looking ahead, where can the main investment themes for the fourth quarter be found? Is tech still attractive? Let's look at the interpretation from Wang Li, Senior Macro Strategy Researcher at Great Wall Fund.

Wang Li stated that from the perspective of the valuation level of the entire A-share market, there is still pressure to fall back toward the central level.

Historically, when the overall A-share valuation rises above the central level, it is either during a period of very loose liquidity (such as 2013-2015), or after liquidity recovery, when industries experience a "Davis double-click" and corporate earnings digest valuations (such as 2019-2021 and since September 2024).

Referring to the 2019-2021 experience, as the industry "Davis double-click" enters its latter half, valuations still face pressure to fall back to the central level.

From the perspective of corporate earnings, the current industry profit structure is diverging, with the tech sector's market capitalization proportion and profit contribution growing larger.

Data shows that the current tech sector (electronics + communications + computers + power equipment) market capitalization proportion has exceeded 30%, and A-share profit growth in the first half was mainly contributed by tech (and cyclicals).

Wang Li believes that from a PEG perspective, tech currently has more allocation appeal.

September to November is the traditional window for密集 catalysis in the overseas AI industry in the second half of the year, and subsequent resonance catalysts are expected to increase, with domestic tech sectors having repair opportunities following overseas mapping.

He also reminded that three important time points are worth watching: First, Anthropic's ARR disclosure before its listing in October, which is expected to boost global capital expenditure expectations and ease concerns about AI investment returns; second, the arrival of a new round of earnings season in October, which is expected to further clarify next year's industry prosperity expectations; third, the密集 holding of overseas tech conferences from September to November, focusing on the progress of new AI applications and new scenario implementations.

In terms of investment rhythm, Wang Li believes that in the short term, one can follow the tech industry cycle and pay more attention to tech; if tech or the index reaches a high point, one can gradually focus on cyclicals or high-dividend sectors.

In terms of direction, the tech sector can focus on AI hardware directions such as optical communications and semiconductors; the high-dividend sector can focus on banks, coal, etc.; the cyclical sector can focus on live hogs, etc.

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