Reports indicate that payment company Stripe, in partnership with major private equity firm Advent International, has made a massive takeover offer for PayPal Holdings Inc (Nasdaq: PYPL) valued at $53 billion.
The joint bid of $60.50 per share represents a 28% premium over the stock's Tuesday closing price of $47.37. However, investor Michael Burry, famous as the inspiration for "The Big Short," believes the offer is not generous and is merely a lowball initial proposal.
Burry, who recently listed PayPal as a core deep-value holding, immediately stated that the acquisition offer is significantly undervalued.
In a post referencing his own intrinsic value model, Burry said, "The offer price represents only 1.21 times the 15-year intrinsic value, which is far too low. This bid confirms PayPal's substantial intrinsic worth, and I believe the buyers will have to raise their price considerably."
Burry stated that PayPal is one of the cheapest and highest-quality companies in his entire portfolio, with its current market price well below its intrinsic value. Therefore, to successfully complete an acquisition, the offer must include a substantial control premium on top of a reasonable base valuation.
Burry didn't just reject the offer outright; he also provided a framework for calculating a fair acquisition price:
Based on a 10-year intrinsic value (IV10) calculation, PayPal's reasonable base valuation is in the range of $75 to $80 per share.
Using an 8-year intrinsic value (IV8) calculation pushes the base valuation even higher to between $110 and $115 per share.
Factoring in the 10-year intrinsic value along with a standard control premium, a fair price that could realistically close a deal would be approximately $100 per share.
In Burry's view, the $53 billion total valuation is merely a starting point for negotiations.
He made his position clear: "The $60.50 offer is too low. I will not sell my position. This is just a first-round testing offer."
If Burry's assessment is accurate, Stripe and Advent International would need to substantially increase their offer to take this digital payments leader private.