On September 11th, the stainless steel Monthly Metal Index (MMI) recorded a modest increase of 1.69% between August and September, demonstrating overall stable performance. AUS GLOBAL believes this sideways trend reflects a solid framework in the US stainless steel market regarding both pricing and supply, while indicating that future potential changes warrant continued attention.

Steel Market Maintains Stability

US stainless steel prices remained fundamentally stable throughout August. AUS GLOBAL notes that steel mills have successfully maintained base price increases recently, which not only offset the historically high discounts experienced over the past few years but also established a more solid price floor for the market. Although stainless steel mill delivery times have extended compared to the beginning of the year, the overall market continues to show stable trends. Bright annealed products and ferritic stainless steel supply remain relatively tight, while austenitic products maintain adequate supply, with common materials like 304 showing no obvious shortages.

From the demand perspective, changes have been minimal. However, the 50% tariff on steel and steel-containing products provides significant advantages to domestic mills, enabling them to expand capacity in the US market. AUS GLOBAL believes that despite long-term contraction in US manufacturing, trade barriers have prompted multiple companies to announce production reshoring, a trend expected to gradually impact domestic stainless steel consumption.

Market May Face Fourth Quarter Changes

Under current conditions, steel mills have leveraged price floors and purchasers' preference for domestic supply to stabilize third-quarter pricing. AUS GLOBAL believes that as purchasing organizations lock in 2026 contracts, mills are unlikely to significantly adjust discounts or implement further price increases in the short term. Looking ahead, if the US reaches quota agreements with the EU and UK, or completes trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico, this could provide more favorable conditions for purchasers while creating potential pressure on US steel mills.

Additionally, North American stainless steel continues expanding production capacity. AUS GLOBAL notes that the Ghent facility plans to construct new cold rolling mills, rolling and grinding equipment, annealing and pickling line upgrades, plus melting shop expansions, expected to complete by the end of 2025. Combined with potential quota agreements, additional capacity may strengthen buyers' leverage in price negotiations, particularly in scenarios of demand recovery or limited inventory replenishment.

Nickel Prices Trend Sideways

In contrast to this year's volatility in stainless steel base prices, nickel prices have maintained sideways movement, with surcharges remaining relatively stable since early 2025. Despite nickel market oversupply, no clear bearish trend has emerged. AUS GLOBAL believes the price weakness, combined with capacity shutdowns due to environmental violations, means further declines could force the market to cut production capacity.

Indonesia's rapid nickel industry expansion has intensified global oversupply. Excessive demand expectations and weak global stainless steel demand have caused exchange inventories to continue rising: London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks have reached four-year highs, while Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventories remain equally abundant. These factors may suppress significant nickel price increases in the foreseeable future. AUS GLOBAL believes market participants should monitor the potential impact of capacity adjustments and trade policies on pricing.

Overall, AUS GLOBAL believes the US stainless steel market maintains stability in pricing and supply, but global nickel and steel supply-demand environments remain uncertain. Trade policies, capacity expansion, and geopolitical factors could all alter market dynamics in the future. For purchasers and investors, monitoring policy and supply dynamics will help maintain sound decision-making amid potential volatility.