A significant event concerning the expiration of a large share lock-up for Bank Of Qingdao Co.,Ltd. (002948.SZ) has drawn market attention. According to the announcement, 410 million shares, representing 11.6113% of the company's A-shares and 7.0390% of its total share capital, previously held under lock-up from before its initial public offering, will become freely tradable on June 1, 2026.
The focus of this lock-up expiration is undoubtedly on shareholders affiliated with Haier. Notably, during previous waves of lock-up expiries, the Haier-affiliated shareholders, as the largest shareholder group, have acted as a stabilizing force. However, with the Qingdao state-owned capital increasing its holdings significantly in the second half of last year, the Haier group faces the risk of being relegated to the second-largest shareholder position for the first time in over two decades. As the commitment period concludes, the market is keenly watching the strategic choice of this long-term industrial shareholder.
A closer look at the lock-up expiration reveals that this batch of shares relates to the expiry of a lock-up period following an internal restructuring within the Haier group in 2021. In February 2021, Qingdao Haier Investment Development Co., Ltd. (Haier Investment) transferred 410 million A-shares (9.08% of total share capital) to Qingdao Haier Industrial Development Co., Ltd. (Haier Industrial Development), under the same controlling entity, at a price of 5.60 yuan per share.
Concurrently with the transfer, these shares were placed under a lock-up. According to the lock-up commitment, the transferee, Haier Industrial Development, pledged "not to transfer the acquired shares for five years from the date of acquisition." Now that this five-year commitment has ended, Haier Industrial Development has gained the freedom to dispose of these shares.
The total 421 million shares becoming freely tradable, calculated at yesterday's closing price of 5.46 yuan per share, represent a market value of approximately 20 billion yuan. The question arises whether this will act as a significant negative pressure on the bank's stock price.
A look at the previous large-scale lock-up expiration might provide some insight. In January 2022, Bank Of Qingdao Co.,Ltd. announced the expiration of a lock-up covering 1.631 billion shares, four times the current scale. This initially created clear negative sentiment: the bank's stock price, already below its IPO price, fell 1.11% on the announcement day and continued a general downtrend thereafter. However, in sharp contrast to the market sentiment at the time, the actual actions of major shareholders were different: the top three shareholder groups all chose to retain their holdings post-expiration. The bank even completed a rights issue in 2022, raising 2.5 billion yuan to strengthen its core tier-1 capital.
It is noteworthy that since 2025, subtle changes have been occurring in the shareholder structure. A landmark event in this shift is the substantial increase in holdings by Qingdao state-owned capital shareholders, breaking the bank's long-standing stable ownership pattern. In June 2025, Bank Of Qingdao Co.,Ltd. announced that Qingdao Guoxin Group, a subsidiary of the Qingdao State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, planned to increase its stake through a subsidiary (Qingdao Guoxin Industry Finance Holdings), with the post-increase total expected not to exceed 19.99%. This target aimed to approach the holdings of the then-foreign shareholder, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. (holding 17.50%), and the Haier-affiliated shareholders (collectively holding 18.14% through eight entities).
This increase plan is becoming reality: by the end of the first quarter of 2026, Qingdao Guoxin Industry Finance Holdings' shareholding had risen significantly to 16.24%, up from 11.25% at the end of the first half of 2025. In contrast to the local state-owned capital's "aggressive" stance, Intesa Sanpaolo and the Haier group have remained relatively calm: their shareholding percentages remained unchanged as of the end of Q1 this year.
Revisiting the stock performance of Bank Of Qingdao Co.,Ltd., since its market debut in early 2019, it experienced a brief surge followed by a general trend of volatile decline. Particularly after Haier Industrial Development took over Bank Of Qingdao Co.,Ltd. shares from group affiliates, the bank's stock price underwent a steep drop. Based on non-adjusted prices, the lowest point of 2.92 yuan per share was nearly halved compared to Haier Industrial Development's acquisition price.
However, after bottoming out over several years, Bank Of Qingdao Co.,Ltd.'s stock price began a steady upward climb. Considering dividend factors, the forward-adjusted price has reached new highs. This recovery is aided by favorable industry tailwinds (the banking sector began a strong upward trend in early 2024) and is also a market reward for the bank's high growth trajectory—its accelerated double-digit balance sheet expansion in recent years propelled its total assets to 840.5 billion yuan by the end of Q1 this year, surpassing Qilu Bank to become the largest city commercial bank in Shandong.
The benefits of rapid balance sheet expansion extend further. Over the past years, Bank Of Qingdao Co.,Ltd. has successfully used "volume to compensate for price" to counter narrowing net interest margins, achieving positive growth in net interest income against the trend. Specifically, from 2020 to 2025, the bank's net interest margin fell from a high of 2.15% to 1.53%, while net interest income rose from 6.41 billion yuan to 10.52 billion yuan, driving total operating income from 7.94 billion yuan to 13.14 billion yuan. Under the "denominator effect," although the bank's non-performing loan balance grew from 2.45 billion yuan to 4.02 billion yuan over the same period, the corresponding NPL ratio decreased from 1.43% to 1.05%.
However, this model also has its typical drawbacks. In recent years, Bank Of Qingdao Co.,Ltd.'s core tier-1 capital adequacy ratio has hovered around 8.5%, leaving limited buffer from regulatory minimums. In comparison, Qilu Bank, the former largest city commercial bank in Shandong by scale, has maintained a core tier-1 capital adequacy ratio above 10% for years, even rising further to around 11% recently, indicating more room for future expansion. Furthermore, regarding cash dividends, Bank Of Qingdao Co.,Ltd.'s payout ratio has generally declined since its IPO, pointing to insufficient returns for investors. Notably, encouraged by regulatory policies, the bank's annual dividend for 2025 rebounded to 0.18 yuan per share, yet it still fell short of the 0.20 yuan per share dividend in its listing year.
Given its strong growth profile, Bank Of Qingdao Co.,Ltd. remains an attractive holding for shareholders. However, against the backdrop of not-so-abundant core capital, the bank's future pace of balance sheet expansion will be somewhat constrained, and suppressing shareholder returns to conserve capital is not without cost. For major shareholders represented by the Haier group, this balancing point may ultimately arrive.