A-shares exhibited notable weakness today, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 2.40% to 3,894.42 points, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 5.01%, the ChiNext Index declining 6.26%, and the STAR Market Composite Index down 7.16%. Total trading volume across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 2.53 trillion yuan, expanding by 110.2 billion yuan from the previous session. At the sector level, only defensive groups such as financials, transportation, coal, and high-dividend stocks managed gains, while all others declined; notably, previously rebounding sectors including machine tools, communications, robotics, and chips suffered sharp pullbacks. Risk appetite was decidedly weak, with more than 5,000 stocks falling market-wide. In terms of style, small-caps underperformed large-caps, growth lagged value, and the STAR/ChiNext boards trailed mainboard indices. Overall, today's market reflected a distinctly risk-off tone.

Since the start of this week, the 10-year government bond yield has further descended to around 1.67%, extending its downward trajectory that began in early August. The July PMI slipping back below the boom-bust line, cooling inflation data, and persistently ample liquidity have jointly underpinned a bullish bond market environment. While both fundamentals and liquidity currently favor bonds, interest rates are already at historic lows, limiting further downside space. Investors may consider holding medium-duration, stable instruments such as the Treasury Bond ETF (511010) and the 10-Year Treasury Bond ETF (511260). On the fundamental front, July's official manufacturing PMI came in at 49.2, retreating below the 50 threshold and notably weakening from June's 50.3, with SME PMIs remaining in contraction territory, highlighting that the economic recovery's foundation remains fragile. Regarding inflation, July CPI rose 0.5% year-on-year, significantly down from June's 1.0%, dragged primarily by softer food and beverage prices. July PPI increased 3.5% year-on-year, easing from June's 4.1% but still in positive territory, suggesting limited pass-through from upstream prices to midstream and downstream sectors. Taken together, the momentum of economic recovery is marginally decelerating, and inflation expectations remain muted, providing support for medium-to-long-term interest rates. On the liquidity side, DR007 has steadily declined from around 1.45% at the end of July to approximately 1.37% by August 18, indicating a clear lowering of the funding rate center and looser interbank liquidity. The central bank's accommodative stance is evident, with liquidity maintaining a balanced-to-loose pattern, as DR007 persistently stays below the 7-day reverse repo operation rate, reflecting no shortage of funds in the interbank market. The July Politburo meeting emphasized "making good use of existing policies," implying that expectations for incremental policy measures remain subdued. Currently, we believe the bond market is in a phase where fundamentals, policy expectations, and liquidity are resonating favorably, creating a conducive environment and buoyant market sentiment. Therefore, holding positions in the short term may remain advisable. However, awareness of risk factors is essential. First, under the confluence of multiple factors, institutions may turn overwhelmingly bullish, potentially leaving insufficient incremental trading capital. Second, in the first half, due to export chain strength and inflation exceeding expectations, fiscal policy was applied conservatively, leaving substantial remaining room. If domestic demand drags fail to improve in the second half, expectations for fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance could emerge, exerting some pressure on the bond market. In summary, we maintain a view favoring a positive short-term win-rate environment and a narrow-range fluctuation in the medium term. Weak fundamentals and ample liquidity support the bond market, and investors may consider medium-duration, stable instruments like the Treasury Bond ETF (511010) and the 10-Year Treasury Bond ETF (511260).

Today, A-share technology sectors underwent a significant correction, with electronics and communications each falling over 7%, and the computer sector declining more than 4%. From a catalyst perspective, external market transmission served as the direct trigger—long-end U.S. Treasury yields surged once again, with the 30-year yield approaching 5.3%, pressuring global risk assets, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 5% overnight. However, taking a longer view, since the July selloff, the technology sector has accumulated substantial rebound gains, with the Communications ETF (515880) and the Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) both surging over 30% from their bottoms. Valuation repair trades now face profit-taking pressure near the 4,000-point psychological level. At the meso level, no substantive negative factors have emerged, suggesting today's correction is likely a technical pullback rather than a fundamental reversal. On external disturbances, the rapid rise in U.S. bond yields has suppressed valuations of U.S. tech stocks, compounded by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's price-to-earnings ratio sitting at a historical high of 51.9 times. The confluence of high valuations and rising rates has triggered a phased adjustment in U.S. tech shares, transmitting sentiment to domestic markets through A-share mapping. Yet, it's worth noting that the U.S. tech pullback stems more from risk-appetite contraction driven by tariff policy uncertainties under the Trump administration; actual growth in semiconductor orders and AI capital expenditures has not yet decelerated. On the internal trading front, the market currently lacks a compelling new upward narrative to drive a second wave. Profit-taking and trapped positions accumulated during the earlier rebound form dual selling pressure near the 4,000-point level, and a short-term consolidation may represent a reasonable process of position clearing. However, positive signals at the industry level have not been absent. According to Huaxi Securities, Yangtze Memory's first fully domestic production line is slated for trial production introduction in the second half of 2025, with its counseling status updated to "counseling acceptance," accelerating its listing process. Yangtze Memory's current monthly capacity is approximately 160,000 wafers, holding only a 13-15% share of global NAND Flash supply. If trial production yields ramp up smoothly, the long-term capacity expansion potential is enormous, and the certainty of domestic memory expansion is relatively strong. Additionally, leading U.S. AI firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI continue to see rapid ARR growth, continuously validating the commercialization loop of the AI industry. While investors should maintain confidence, they must also remain cognizant of volatility risks. In communications, the sector's fundamental strength remains unchanged, with clear valuation support anchored to 2027 earnings and high earnings visibility. However, concerns over FCC policies may continue to intermittently disturb market sentiment. The semiconductor equipment sector's advantage lies in the clear visibility of memory capacity expansion, though the sector remains highly volatile. Investors may consider focusing on the Communications ETF (515880) and the Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516).

Today, both the Robotics ETF (159551) and the Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) fell approximately 7%, as the sectors experienced broad declines. Unitree Robotics listed today, marking the formal landing of a positive catalyst as a benchmark company in the humanoid robotics field. Previously, funds trading around the supply chain's expectations have now taken concentrated profits following the listing event, potentially driving a sector-wide pullback. Additionally, overseas liquidity conditions have also exerted pressure. Unitree's listing saw its market value briefly exceed 400 billion yuan, surpassing market expectations. This indirectly reflects regulatory support for the humanoid robotics industry, and the domestic supply chain may be poised for a round of valuation repricing. However, given its relatively small free-float market value, short-term stock price volatility could be significant, and chasing highs warrants caution. Fundamentally, Unitree is a leading humanoid robot manufacturer in domestic shipments, with a global market share of nearly 70% in quadruped robots. While commercialization is indeed advancing, realizing profits under a high valuation still requires time to validate. Overseas, the current focus remains on production ramp-up pace. Tesla's first robotics production line at Fremont has entered the equipment installation phase, with industrialization progressing steadily. If subsequent production ramp-up exceeds expectations or a clear breakthrough occurs at the robot's "brain" level, market expectation anchors could be reshaped, driving order validation and valuation recovery. Production ramp-up is the key variable determining whether the sector can embark on a second wave. For interested investors, adopting a phased allocation and batch position-building approach may help smooth the impact of short-term volatility on holding costs. Investors may consider the Robotics ETF (159551) and the Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667). Risk warning: Investors should fully understand the difference between regular fixed-amount investment in funds and savings methods like zero-deposit lump-sum withdrawal. Regular fixed-amount investment is a simple method that guides investors toward long-term investing and averaging investment costs. However, it does not mitigate the inherent risks of fund investing, cannot guarantee returns, and is not an equivalent savings alternative. Whether stock ETFs, LOFs, or graded funds, they are all securities investment fund products with relatively high expected risk and returns, with expected returns and risk levels higher than hybrid funds, bond funds, and money market funds. Fund assets invested in the STAR Market and ChiNext Board will face idiosyncratic risks arising from differences in investment targets, market mechanisms, and trading rules; investors are advised to take note. The sector/fund short-term gains or losses listed are merely auxiliary materials for the article's analytical views, for reference only, and do not constitute a guarantee of fund performance. Short-term performance of mentioned individual stocks is for reference only and does not constitute a stock recommendation, nor a prediction or guarantee of fund performance. The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or commitments. If you wish to purchase relevant fund products, please pay attention to investor suitability management regulations, complete risk assessments in advance, and purchase funds matching your risk tolerance level. Funds carry risks; invest with caution. MACD golden cross signals formed, these stocks are performing well!