Gold price rebound is helping repair the once-neglected "fixed income plus gold" wealth management products. Data from Puyi Standard shows average returns of 1.65% in June and 1.34% in July, rising to 1.91% as of August 21. International gold prices launched a rebound from the early August low of $4,041 per ounce, climbing over 10% within the month to regain the $4,600 level.

However, contrasting with the NAV recovery, the issuance side continues to cool. Since June, no new gold-themed products have been established. Industry insiders believe gold's role in wealth management portfolios is shifting from a "return-chasing tool" to a "ballast stone for navigating cycles."

Shifting Allocation Logic

The return curve for gold wealth management products has experienced a steep rollercoaster over the past six months. Puyi Standard data reveals average returns of 5.38% in February, with peak returns reaching 8.16%. Returns then plummeted, with March through May averaging 2.17%, 2.56%, and 2.32% respectively. June and July saw averages of 1.65% and 1.34%, before recovering to 1.91% as of August 21, with peak returns at 4.60%.

In stark contrast to the yield recovery, the issuance side remains sluggish. According to Wind data, 34 gold wealth management products were established since the beginning of 2026, but none have been launched since June. Interviews reveal that wealth management companies are generally using bond coupon income as a foundation, maintaining gold exposure at low positions, and adopting flexible "buy-on-dips" strategies within a multi-asset framework.

Qu Rui, Senior Deputy Director of the Research and Development Department at Dongfang Jincheng, noted the positioning shift from "return-chasing" to "ballast stone." Previously, gold was viewed more as a trading enhancement tool in portfolios, added during price rallies for upside potential and reduced during declines to control drawdowns—essentially treating gold as a high-volatility alternative asset for rotation. However, since 2026, with US fiscal sustainability debates moving from expectations to data validation, continued global central bank gold purchases, and the advancing de-dollarization trend, gold's strategic allocation attributes have been repriced. Gold offers hedging value under sovereign credit risk and inflation tail scenarios, transforming its role in "fixed income plus" portfolios from "return enhancer" to "risk diversifier."

He cautioned that "ballast stone" does not equal "stabilizer." "Gold's own volatility is not low; it ballasts the credit currency system, not portfolio NAV fluctuations," Qu Rui pointed out. The NAV gains of 0.61% over the past month and 0.75% over three months are largely attributable to August's rapid gold price rebound rather than sustainable excess returns. At the risk pricing level, wealth management companies need to reassess gold position risks, as even a 5% to 10% allocation could dominate short-term portfolio NAV volatility when gold prices move 2% to 4% in a single day.

Mixed Signals for Gold's Outlook

Market institutions remain generally optimistic about gold's trajectory. UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office believes the second-half rally is not yet over. As investors reassess US monetary policy and dollar prospects, gold has broken out of its recent consolidation and moved higher. Softening US labor market data has also reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold rates steady with inflation pressures under control.

Demand-side factors are also supportive. Gold exchange-traded funds have seen renewed net inflows, initially driven by Chinese buying, with European demand recently strengthening. Meanwhile, central bank purchases continue unabated. World Gold Council data shows global central banks net purchased 51 tonnes in June, and China's central bank increased its gold reserves by 20 tonnes in July—the largest monthly increase since October 2023.

UBS Wealth Management's CIO outlined three conditions for sustained gold price gains. First, the dollar must continue weakening; the base case is the Fed holding steady in September, though uncertainty remains about rate hikes later this year. Second, market expectations for US real interest rates need to decline. Real rates represent the interest level after adjusting for inflation expectations. As a non-yielding asset, higher real rates mean higher opportunity costs for holding gold. Although the correlation between real rates and gold prices is not consistently stable across all periods, it remains an important indicator to monitor. Third, gold investment demand needs further strengthening. ETF inflows have improved, but whether this momentum persists remains to be seen. The analysis framework suggests quarterly investment buying of approximately 500 tonnes is needed to support gold prices sustainably at or above $5,000 per ounce.

Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, stated that de-dollarization is an inevitable trend, and international gold prices breaking above $5,000 per ounce is only a matter of time. He identified two main drivers for the current rally: first, US non-farm payroll and retail data missed expectations, inflation has moderated, and rate cut expectations have strengthened—the September meeting will likely hold rates steady, but December cuts remain possible if Q4 economic data stays weak; second, the US Treasury's increased bond buyback program has pushed previously elevated Treasury yields lower, providing positive support for gold. Additionally, global central bank purchases continue unabated, offering medium-to-long-term bottom support. According to the World Gold Council's July 30 report, global central banks and other official institutions added a combined 289 tonnes of gold reserves in Q2, up 62% year-on-year.

He recommends retail investors allocate 10% to 20% of their portfolios to gold-related assets to hedge against long-term depreciation risks of the dollar and other fiat currencies.

Regarding the sustainability of wealth management companies' "buy-on-dips" strategy, Qu Rui analyzed that its core depends on whether gold's pricing center can steadily rise, rather than timing ability itself. If fiscal credit deterioration and central bank purchases form medium-to-long-term bottom support, buying on dips becomes an effective strategy to build positions at lower costs within an upward trend, and wealth management companies' longer liability durations provide room to absorb short-term volatility. However, this strategy faces two risks. First, if US inflation rebounds forcing the Fed to resume rate hikes or global liquidity tightens periodically, gold prices could correct significantly, with "lower" levels following "dips." Second, COMEX gold futures have rapidly surged to around $4,700 per ounce since August, increasing short-term profit-taking pressure—the window for "buying on dips" is narrowing, and the risk of chasing highs increases.