SpaceX closed at USD 146.15, gaining 9.65% from the prior close.

An enormous $16.79 million long volatility combination dominated the session, paired with a $9.18 million bullish put sale, yet the aggregate sentiment from large traders tipped slightly bearish. Bullish flow totaled $41.06 million against $43.43 million in bearish premium, leaving a net cautious tilt of $2.37 million, as heavy downside hedging offset the confident premium collection.

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Options Indicators

SPCX’s implied volatility is 75.75%, and with an IV percentile of 81.99%, current option volatility sits in an elevated range, indicating that options are priced expensively relative to their own historical backdrop. At the same time, the IV/HV ratio of 0.75 suggests implied volatility is running below realized volatility, which somewhat offsets the “rich” percentile reading, but overall the options market is still reflecting a high-volatility regime rather than a cheap entry point for premium buyers. The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.40.

Large Trades

A long volatility combination with a net debit of $16.79 million was the standout trade, consisting of a 145.0 call purchase and a 115.0 put purchase, both expiring on November 20, 2026. With SPCX referenced at 146.15, the 145.0 call was in the money while the 115.0 put was out of the money, creating a two-leg CALL+PUT long structure that clearly reflects a net premium outlay rather than premium collection. Strategically, this looks like a directional volatility bet or hedge seeking a large move over time, with upside participation through the in-the-money call and downside protection through the lower-strike put.

A bullish single-leg premium sale worth $9.18 million was the other highlighted trade, with 8,261 contracts of the 135.0 put sold for expiration on October 16, 2026. Since the strike sat below the 146.15 reference price, the put was out of the money at execution, making this a moderately constructive trade that benefits from the stock holding above 135.0 and from time decay. The strategic intent is consistent with premium collection and a bullish-to-neutral stance, as the seller is effectively expressing confidence that SPCX will remain above that level into expiration.

Overall sentiment across all large trades leaned slightly bearish, with bullish flow totaling $41.06 million versus bearish flow of $43.43 million, leaving a net bearish difference of $2.37 million. The directional picture is therefore mildly negative rather than decisively bearish, as the tape showed meaningful downside hedging and bearish structures, but also notable bullish premium-selling activity and some constructive combinations. In short, large traders appear cautious on SPCX, with downside protection and bearish positioning marginally outweighing bullish exposure.

Strategy Reference

For traders sharing the bullish premium-collection view but seeking a lower assignment probability, selling the 120.0 put in the October 2026 cycle could offer a wider cushion below the 135.0 traded strike, while those averse to large margin requirements might consider a 145.0/155.0 call spread financed by selling the 115.0 put to mimic the large combo with reduced upfront cost.