Bond Market Turmoil Prompts Europe's Debt-Laden Nations to Consider a More Cautious Approach

Deep News
Yesterday

European political circles are beginning to show the first signs of yielding to the will of the ruthless bond market.

Over the past few weeks, from London to Paris to Rome, budget policies and discussions in various countries have taken a small step toward caution, as soaring yields and skyrocketing interest rate costs evoke memories of the eurozone debt crisis.

France's budget aimed at reducing its massive deficit, and the pragmatic posture displayed by far-right presidential challenger Marine Le Pen, suggest that lavish spending is no longer the order of the day.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham's proposal to end Britain's symbolic "triple lock" state pension system, as well as Italy's move to cut defense borrowing, similarly point in the same direction.

These concessions may not be enough to deter the bond vigilantes who once nearly brought down the euro through speculative trading.

It is also too early to judge whether these concessions will bring earth-shattering changes for the debt-laden members of the G7, or whether they are merely a fleeting gesture.

But the current trend suggests that the message from investors who have pushed bond yields to multi-decade highs is beginning to be heard.

This is particularly striking given the situation in Washington, where politicians arguably pay less attention to the need to curb rapidly growing debt.

"I think that now European policymakers, economic participants, and probably a growing number of ordinary people, are fully aware of the fiscal problem," said Federico Barriga-Salazar, head of the Western European sovereign team at Fitch Ratings.

In recent weeks, as financial markets brace for greater price pressures from the Middle East energy crisis, bond prices across developed economies have broadly fallen.

France stands out, with investors demanding the highest extra yield for holding French 10-year bonds relative to German bonds since 2011.

Italy's bond spreads have also widened sharply, and this spillover effect highlights that although its deficit is more moderate than that of its northern neighbor, this cannot hide the fact that it is about to become Europe's largest massive debt.

UK gilt yields have also hit multi-decade highs.

This volatility has triggered alarm in Europe's corridors of power.

"We expect opposition parties, especially in France, Italy, Poland and Spain, which will hold elections this year and next, to work harder to reassure markets of their willingness to control deficits," said the deputy head of sovereign and public sector ratings at Scope Ratings.

A senior eurozone official said last week that the bond market is imposing a certain discipline.

The official declined to be named because of discussions on sensitive matters.

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