Wholesale inflation in the United States slowed more than anticipated in July on a year-over-year basis, propelled by further declines in energy and food prices. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4.7% in July, following a 5.5% increase in June compared to the same period last year. On a month-over-month basis, the PPI was flat in July.
Excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, the core producer price index climbed 4.2% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month. The PPI report, combined with the previously released consumer price data, indicates that inflation is easing, reinforcing the view that the initial energy shock stemming from the war is steadily dissipating. However, renewed tensions in the Middle East have recently sparked concerns about the persistence of inflation.
Federal Reserve officials will have access to additional consumer and producer price data, along with another labor market report, before their next policy decision in mid-September. So far, Fed policymakers have been balancing ongoing inflationary pressures against a recent slowdown in hiring. Energy prices declined by 3.1% in July from June, marking the second consecutive month of decreases, while food prices posted their largest drop since the beginning of the year.
Several subcomponents of the PPI are of particular interest to the Fed, as they feed into the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the central bank's preferred measure of inflation. These categories sent mixed signals. Portfolio management fees saw their largest increase in over a year, and prices for hospital outpatient services also rose sharply. In contrast, prices for physician visits and hospital inpatient care were more modest. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release July PCE price data, along with personal income and spending figures, on August 26.