Inverter exports in May reached 4.578 million units, marking a 25% year-on-year decrease but a 12.2% month-on-month increase, according to customs data. Cumulative exports for the year stand at 19.72 million units, down 11% year-on-year. The export value for May was $940 million, up 9.95% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, with a cumulative annual value of $4.3 billion, representing a 24.4% year-on-year increase. It is anticipated that residential and commercial inverters, along with power conditioning systems (PCS), will sustain robust demand in the third quarter. Companies with a high proportion of European commercial and industrial or emerging market residential inverter sales are suggested for focus.

Analysis by Export Province

Examining exports by province reveals varied performance. Jiangsu province's export value fell 16.5% year-on-year but rose 1.3% month-on-month. Guangdong's exports declined 7% year-on-year but increased 9.1% sequentially, while Zhejiang saw a 37.2% year-on-year drop but an 18.8% month-on-month gain. The year-on-year declines are primarily attributed to a high base of demand from Europe last year and inventory replenishment in April. Demand for commercial and industrial inverters and PCS remains solid. Anhui province experienced a 28.4% year-on-year and 17.8% month-on-month decline, likely due to stalled centralized projects in the Middle East following regional events and a significant year-on-year decrease in U.S. utility-scale solar installation demand.

Regional Demand Patterns

Demand in May showed significant regional divergence. Emerging markets demonstrated stability, with export values to Vietnam and India remaining flat month-on-month. Exports to Thailand surged 103% month-on-month, reflecting a clear intent to adjust the energy structure, primarily through centralized power station projects. Exports to Australia rose 55% month-on-month, driven by subsidy policies.

European demand was mixed. Export value to Germany fell 42.1% month-on-month, and Spain declined 40.6%. Conversely, exports to France jumped 112%, and Bulgaria soared 196%. The decline in some countries is linked to completed inventory replenishment in April, while increased electricity demand due to weather conditions and energy structure adjustments are driving installations in others.

Middle Eastern demand rose rapidly. Export value to Saudi Arabia increased 93% month-on-month, Israel rose 44%, and Iraq grew 35%. This is attributed to strong demand for off-grid energy storage installations in conflict-affected areas, with demand climbing swiftly as the situation stabilizes. Exports to the United States were flat month-on-month, indicating relatively stable demand for ground-mounted power station installations.

Pricing Trends

The average unit value saw a slight decrease, likely due to an increased proportion of demand for commercial, industrial, and residential inverters. According to Sun.store's May European inverter procurement prices, grid-tied inverters above 15KW increased by 2.4% month-on-month, while other categories experienced price declines. Prices for 20-30KWh energy storage systems rose 1.5%, with 60-120KWh systems seeing a slight increase. Sun.store reports this is due to tight supply in the commercial and industrial energy storage system segment.

Key Risks

Potential risks include fluctuations in overseas trade policies, geopolitical tensions, currency exchange rate volatility, solar and storage demand falling short of expectations, and intensifying market competition.