Global gas turbine orders reached an all-time high in the second quarter of this year, driven by a significant surge in power demand, according to JPMorgan.

Analysts at JPMorgan, led by Phil Buehler, reported that orders for gas turbines totaled approximately 38 gigawatts (GW) in the April-to-June period. This represents a 29% increase from the first quarter and a 71% jump compared to the same period last year. The United States remains the largest market, accounting for nearly half of all orders, the analysts noted.

Based on JPMorgan's data, Siemens Energy AG secured the largest order volume in the second quarter, at about 12.5 GW. It was followed by General Electric Co. with orders totaling 11.3 GW, while Mitsubishi Power Ltd. ranked third with 5.3 GW in orders. The analysts added that rising demand is pushing up costs. A combined-cycle gas turbine scheduled for delivery in 2031 is now priced at three times the cost of a unit delivered last year.

The competition in artificial intelligence (AI) has extended from algorithms to the physical world of power supply, with heavy-duty gas turbines becoming as critical a strategic asset for tech giants as computer chips. Indeed, the gas turbine market has been buoyed by AI demand for some time. According to estimates from US investment research firm Melius Research, gas turbine prices have risen by roughly 300% over the past three years.

Behind this price surge is a severe structural mismatch between supply and demand. On the demand side, data center electricity consumption is growing rapidly. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global data center electricity use is projected to rise from about 415 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2024 to around 945 billion kWh by 2030, increasing its share of global electricity consumption from 1.5% to nearly 3%. From 2024 to 2030, data center electricity consumption is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of about 15%, significantly outpacing overall electricity demand growth. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley data shows that the US data center power shortage has surged to 55 GW, forcing many computing projects to be delayed due to grid connection constraints. As a result, AI participants are increasingly acquiring "off-grid" solutions.

Gas turbines have become the "optimal solution" to fill this gap due to their unique performance advantages. Unlike intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar, gas turbines can provide 7x24 hour stable dispatch with millisecond-level peak-shaving response. They also offer the advantage of a short construction period, becoming operational in just 12 to 18 months, which suits the rapid deployment needs of AI data centers.

However, while demand expands rapidly, the supply side of gas turbines is constrained by extremely high manufacturing barriers, leading to a significant lag in capacity expansion. Driven by US AI data centers and the global energy transition, global gas turbine demand has surged, exceeding 100 GW in 2025 and potentially reaching 117 GW in 2026. But due to high manufacturing barriers, supply is insufficient, with global gas turbine supply expected to be only about 50-60 GW in 2025.

In this environment of persistently tight supply and demand, the performance of industry leaders confirms the sector's high prosperity. GE Vernova (GEV.US) reported first-quarter revenue of $9.339 billion, up 16% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of $896 million, nearly doubling from the same period last year. During a conference call, the company's management specifically noted that gas turbine backlog orders are expected to reach 100 GW by the end of 2026, with "capacity for 2029 and 2030 also nearly fully booked."

Siemens Energy also reinforced the strong outlook for gas turbines during its earnings call, revising its annual average demand forecast for the industry over the next few years to approximately 110-120 GW (up from 90-100 GW), and clearly stating that it currently sees no signs of slowing demand. The company emphasized that short delivery times are a scarce resource in data center and hyperscale cloud provider projects, commanding a higher premium. It specifically noted that current capacity expansion efforts by industry players are very rational, and that the expansion of industrial gas turbines cannot change the market's supply-demand imbalance.