Texas Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) records show that Tesla (TSLA.US) added 150 newly registered Cybercabs (driverless taxis) on October 8 alone, raising the total from 169 to 319 units, marking the largest single-day increase since the model entered the registration system on August 31. Combined with 420 modified Model Y vehicles, Tesla's autonomous driving fleet in Texas has expanded to approximately 739 units. Following the news, Tesla shares rose nearly 1% overnight. Previously, Tesla's better-than-expected third-quarter delivery figures had pushed the stock up nearly 5% in a single day, yet deliveries still declined about 2% year-over-year. As of early October, the stock was still down roughly 18% year-to-date, making it the only member of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants with a negative return for the year.
Against the backdrop of mounting pressure on its core automotive business, the marginal impact of Robotaxi expansion data on the stock price has been significantly amplified. Around this surge in registrations, Wall Street bulls and bears are sharply divided. Price targets range from $24.86 to $600, a spread of more than 23 times between the highest and lowest, a dispersion rarely seen among large-cap stocks. This reflects the market's continued lack of consensus on the fundamental question of whether Tesla is an automaker or an AI platform, and Cybercab fleet data is precisely the answer that both bulls and bears are seeking.
Bulls: Fleet Scale Is the Switch for Valuation Repricing
Tigress Financial reiterated its "Buy" rating on October 8 with a price target of $550, implying roughly 47% upside from the current stock price and ranking among the highest targets in the past three months. The firm lists the Cybercab driverless taxi as one of five major growth drivers, arguing that it, together with FSD subscriptions, Optimus robots, the energy business, and SpaceX synergies, forms a "physical AI growth flywheel" that supports Tesla's "accelerated growth and long-term shareholder value creation." Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives takes a more aggressive stance with a $600 price target, the highest on Wall Street. He believes the autonomous driving and AI business is worth "at least" $1 trillion, and that Tesla's market capitalization could reach $2 trillion or even $3 trillion within one to two years.
Additionally, RBC Capital Markets' Tom Narayan reiterated a "Buy" rating and $480 price target on October 2. Stifel maintained "Buy" with a $491 target. Piper Sandler and Cantor Fitzgerald both maintained "Overweight" positions. Deutsche Bank maintained "Buy" with a $420 target. Bulls broadly view Robotaxi as the core lever for Tesla to shift from an "automaker valuation" to a "platform valuation."
The Wait-and-See Camp: Direction Acknowledged, but More Proof of Execution Demanded
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco maintained a "Neutral" rating with a $400 price target. The firm's framework is quite representative: sustained expansion of an unsupervised fleet is the most critical KPI for tracking Tesla's autonomous driving business in the second half, and scaled deployment rather than "a handful of vehicles" on the road is the switch that triggers valuation repricing. In its sum-of-the-parts valuation, the Robotaxi business contributes $120 per share, the second-largest source of value after network services at $144. The firm estimates Tesla's Robotaxi fleet will expand to 1,000 units by the end of 2026 and reach 1 million by 2035. Under this framework, the pace of 150 registrations in a single day is exactly the "scaled evidence" Morgan Stanley requires, yet the firm still chooses to wait for further proof of execution.
Other neutral institutions include: JPMorgan's Rajat Gupta maintained "Hold" and lowered the price target from $445 to $415 on September 28. UBS's Joseph Spak maintained "Neutral" and raised the price target to $385 on October 7. Barclays' Dan Levy maintained "Hold" with a $370 target. Goldman Sachs' Mark Delaney maintained "Hold" with a $360 target, having warned in mid-September that Tesla's third-quarter deliveries could fall short of market consensus. Notably, recent rating actions show a pattern of "bulls holding steady while neutral institutions fine-tune price targets," with no institution directly upgrading its rating due to Cybercab data since late September.
Bears: Registration Numbers Do Not Equal Actual Operating Capacity
As a representative of the cautious camp, GLJ Research's Gordon Johnson maintained a "Sell" rating with a price target of just $24.86, the lowest on Wall Street. The bear case rests on three points: first, registration does not equal operation—what is registered in Texas are vehicles "approved for commercial use," and Tesla has never disclosed how many of them actually operate without safety drivers. Second, the gap with Waymo is vast—the latter has entered 15 markets, deployed over 4,000 vehicles, completes more than 500,000 paid rides per week, and has 1,154 vehicles registered in Texas alone, leaving Tesla's 319 Cybercabs as merely a "drop in the bucket."
Regulatory Hammer Looms Overhead
The NHTSA has escalated its safety certification review of the Cybercab into a special order, requiring Tesla to answer 21 questions under oath by October 30, including how the pedal-free design complies with foot brake standards. Passenger feedback has also been mixed, with complaints about waiting over 45 minutes, inaccurate pickup and drop-off points, and gull-wing door malfunctions repeatedly appearing on social media. On fundamentals, Tesla's second-quarter operating profit fell 57% year-over-year, and Robotaxi has become a key pillar supporting the valuation narrative, which means any expansion shortfall will be amplified in interpretation.