Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. released a research report indicating that China's macro consumption growth reversed in January-February 2026, with online and Spring Festival-related categories exceeding expectations. Against an overall upward trend anticipated for 2026, high-quality consumer brands and retail companies demonstrating effective restructuring are expected to outperform. The report recommends focusing on e-commerce platforms enhancing AI capabilities and showing rapid profit recovery, premium gold jewelry brands with strong product offerings driven by gold prices, trade service providers actively advancing digital transformation, and new retail segments optimizing store networks and operational efficiency. Key views from Shenwan Hongyuan are as follows:
Total retail sales of consumer goods grew 2.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, total retail sales reached 8.61 trillion yuan during this period, indicating strong consumption recovery. Online consumption growth showed significant recovery momentum, substantially outperforming overall growth. Online retail sales of goods and services totaled 3.25 trillion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year, exceeding the overall retail growth rate by 6.4 percentage points. Online physical goods sales reached 2.08 trillion yuan, increasing 10.3% year-on-year with online penetration rate at 24.2%.
E-commerce platforms experienced moderated growth in core businesses amid high comparison bases and competitive pressures, but early 2026 data confirms sustained resilience in online consumption with positive recovery outlook for the full year. Alibaba continues to focus on AI development, driving business efficiency and profit optimization through technological upgrades and ecosystem coordination. The company's "AI+e-commerce" strategy is expected to support long-term high-quality growth. Revenue for 4QFY26 is projected at 243.4 billion yuan, up 2.9% year-on-year, while non-GAAP net profit is estimated at 12.4 billion yuan, down 58.5%. JD.com's core retail business slowed due to high bases, but daily necessities categories and service revenue maintained strong growth. The company's food delivery business targeting quality dining is expected to show gradual improvement in marketing efficiency and per-order losses. Q1 2026 revenue is forecast to increase 1.4% to 305.3 billion yuan. Meituan has intensified investments to address competition since Q4 2025, maintaining stable high-order-value shares in food delivery with healthy growth in instant commerce and overseas operations. Q1 2026 revenue is projected to grow 4.4% to 90.3 billion yuan. Pinduoduo continues its billion-yuan subsidy program, with overseas platform Temu exceeding expansion expectations and new supply chain systems under development. Q1 2026 revenue is expected to rise 13.7% to 108.8 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit increasing 62% to 27.4 billion yuan.
Gold jewelry sector benefited from Spring Festival consumption despite gold price volatility and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold, silver and jewelry retail sales grew 13.0% year-on-year in January-February. Lao Pu Gold demonstrated strong terminal sales, rapid membership expansion and product innovation, with significant long-term potential in international luxury positioning. Cai Bai Co., Ltd. saw surging investment gold demand driven by strong gold price expectations, leading to better-than-expected performance. Q1 2026 revenue is projected to increase 50-80% with net profit rising 30-50%. Chow Tai Seng continues refining channel management, focusing on single-store quality and operational efficiency while strengthening brand perception. Q1 2026 revenue is estimated to range from -15% to 0% with net profit between -10% and 10%.
Retail sector performance varied. China Small Commodity City Group achieved comprehensive operational improvements in 2025, with strong import-export data early in 2026 and trade service revenue maintaining doubled growth. Q1 2026 revenue is expected to increase 25-40% with net profit up 35-50%. MINISO Group reported optimistic January-February 2026 sales, with significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in same-store GMV growth for its core brand and TOPTOY continuing to exceed expectations. Q1 2026 revenue is projected at 5.5 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit of 620 million yuan, increasing 5%. Yonghui Superstores concentrated losses in 2025 due to large-scale store closures and restructuring, but improved performance from renovated stores may signal a turning point. Q1 2026 net profit is forecast to grow 10-30%. Chongqing Department Store continues store upgrades, though profit growth remains pressured by consumer finance operations and macroeconomic conditions. Q1 2026 net profit is estimated to range from -10% to 0%.
Risks include weaker-than-expected consumer demand, intensified industry competition, and slower macroeconomic growth.