Abstract

HeartFlow Inc will report first-quarter 2026 financial results on May 14, 2026 Post Market; investors expect mid-teen sequential revenue stability with strong year-over-year growth and continued progress toward the full-year outlook, with attention on margin resilience and operating discipline.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to first-quarter revenue of 49.71 million US dollars, up 33.60% year over year, with adjusted EPS at -0.19 implying a 94.67% year-over-year change and EBIT at -17.07 million US dollars for a 2.49% year-over-year change. There is no explicit quarterly forecast for gross profit margin or net margin; modeling generally assumes margins near recent levels without formal company guidance.

The primary revenue engine remains the company’s analysis services, where momentum from recent execution and customer engagement is expected to sustain year-over-year growth. The most promising growth vector is the company’s advanced analysis initiatives and clinical programs, which should reinforce adoption and pipeline conversion this quarter; while standalone segment revenue and year-over-year rates are not disclosed, total revenue is projected to grow 33.60% year over year.

Last Quarter Review

In the fourth quarter of 2025, HeartFlow Inc delivered revenue of 49.13 million US dollars, a gross profit margin of 79.51%, GAAP net loss attributable to the parent company of 24.40 million US dollars, a net margin of -49.65%, and adjusted EPS of -0.12. A key highlight was execution against expectations: adjusted EPS of -0.12 outperformed the -0.17 consensus while revenue of 49.13 million US dollars exceeded the 46.50 million US dollars consensus. Main business commentary provided no segment revenue breakout for the quarter; total revenue reached 49.13 million US dollars and the company affirmed a stronger multi-quarter growth framework, with year-over-year change for the quarter not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core revenue engine

Revenue for the March quarter is modeled at 49.71 million US dollars, effectively flat versus the prior quarter’s base on a sequential basis, and up 33.60% year over year as customer adoption and order flow carry into the new fiscal year. The quarter should be defined by execution quality: converting pipeline opportunities into billable analysis volume, maintaining price integrity, and delivering clinical turnaround times that support hospital efficiency targets. Gross margin durability is a key watch item after the 79.51% print last quarter; the mix of analysis types, scale in processing infrastructure, and unit cost control in cloud compute should influence whether margin holds within a similar band. Operating expense pacing will be monitored closely against the loss profile implied by the forecast EBIT of -17.07 million US dollars. Investors will focus on whether the company demonstrates operating leverage in sales and support investments during the seasonal reset of budgets at large hospital systems. Management commentary on deal timing, enterprise renewals, and cycle times between evaluation and scaled deployment will also be important for assessing the sustainability of the growth rate into the June quarter.

New initiatives and product extensions

Company programs to deepen clinical evidence and broaden community engagement can catalyze adoption through 2026. The expansion of outreach and registry activity early this year, including engagement with high-visibility athletic communities, is intended to raise awareness and provide additional datasets to support clinical value communication. While direct revenue attribution to these initiatives will likely be limited in the near term, they can accelerate funnel development and clinician advocacy, supporting sustained double-digit revenue growth over the next several quarters if conversion rates remain healthy. From a financial perspective, the benefit of these initiatives to the quarter will be assessed through order intake commentary, pipeline-to-revenue conversion, and early indicators such as new site onboarding or repeat usage trends. Any color around attach rates of advanced analysis capabilities and feedback from early adopters will help investors gauge the trajectory for the remainder of 2026.

What will move the stock this quarter

The immediate share-price drivers are: the magnitude of any beat versus the 49.71 million US dollars revenue and -0.19 adjusted EPS consensus, and whether management reiterates or refines the 2026 revenue framework of 218.00–222.00 million US dollars. If first-quarter revenue aligns with consensus but the company reiterates the full-year outlook, investors may infer a back-half weighting and look for evidence of accelerating bookings, which could support multiple stability despite the current operating loss. Commentary on gross margin relative to the 79.51% benchmark will also be pivotal, as sustained high-70s margins strengthen the path to operating leverage when paired with disciplined headcount and customer acquisition costs. On expenses, investors will scrutinize selling and marketing efficiency metrics alongside research and development cadence, seeking signs that the expense base can scale below revenue growth as the year progresses. Finally, qualitative updates on customer wins, contract expansions, and funnel health will likely set the tone for second-quarter expectations; confirmation that opportunity conversion remained intact across hospital systems and integrated delivery networks should underpin confidence in both the quarterly and annual targets.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of opinions is bullish. Recent coverage includes a Buy rating with a 40.00 US dollars price target from a major broker and an Outperform initiation from another well-known research house in early May, while broader surveys indicate an average rating of Buy with a mean price target of 37.67 US dollars. In aggregate, buy-side and sell-side commentary emphasizes durable growth in analysis volumes, high gross margin characteristics, and an achievable full-year revenue path of 218.00–222.00 million US dollars given the starting run-rate and pipeline visibility. The constructive view centers on three points. First, the company’s top-line setup appears favorable: consensus for the March quarter at 49.71 million US dollars implies year-over-year expansion of 33.60%, which investors see as consistent with management’s annual outlook. Second, the quality of gross margin near 80% provides an attractive foundation for operating leverage as revenue scales, assuming prudent investment in go-to-market and infrastructure. Third, execution in the fourth quarter — revenue and EPS beats against consensus — strengthens confidence that near-term delivery and guidance cadence are tracking, with room for incremental upside if order momentum translates into the second quarter. These analysts also frame what would validate the bullish case on the print: reiterated full-year guidance; quarterly revenue in line or better; gross margin that remains resilient; and clear signals that commercial engagement is expanding, including new site activations or broader usage among existing customers. If these elements are present, the pathway to narrowing operating losses while sustaining above-30% revenue growth appears intact, which underpins the majority positive stance heading into the report.