Abstract

Rigetti Computing will report second‑quarter 2026 results on August 6, 2026, Post Market, with consensus pointing to revenue of 5.15 million US dollars and adjusted EPS of -0.05 as investors track the pace of hardware shipments, government‑backed projects, and research contract momentum.

Market Forecast

For the current fiscal quarter, the market expects Rigetti Computing to deliver revenue of 5.15 million US dollars, up 174.95% year over year, with adjusted EPS around -0.05, implying a -5.13% year‑over‑year change, and EBIT near -22.38 million US dollars with a -14.90% year‑over‑year growth rate; no formal gross or net margin forecast is available. The commercial mix continues to be anchored by hardware systems and components complemented by collaborative research and services, with availability of the Cepheus‑1‑108Q system across multiple cloud marketplaces and federally supported programs expected to underpin demand. The most promising line remains sales of quantum computers and components, which contributed 3.05 million US dollars last quarter; company‑level revenue expanded 198.91% year over year.

Last Quarter Review

Rigetti Computing’s most recent quarter (fiscal first quarter ended March 31, 2026) recorded revenue of 4.40 million US dollars, gross profit margin of 31.32%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 33.11 million US dollars for a net profit margin of 752.48%, and adjusted EPS of -0.04; revenue rose 198.91% year over year and adjusted EPS improved 50.00% year over year. Net income increased sequentially by 281.85%, while operations remained investment‑heavy to support roadmap execution. The business mix comprised 3.05 million US dollars from sales of quantum computers and components (69.23% of revenue), 1.30 million US dollars from collaborative research and other professional services, and 0.06 million US dollars from system access; at the company level, revenue advanced 198.91% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business trajectory this quarter

The near‑term performance hinges on continued uptake of Rigetti Computing’s hardware platforms and the conversion of research collaborations into recognized revenue. Broad distribution of the Cepheus‑1‑108Q system across major cloud channels can widen reach and improve utilization, while ongoing work toward higher two‑qubit gate fidelities should reinforce system quality for commercial and academic workloads. As research programs progress and milestones are delivered, recognition from collaborative contracts and professional services can augment hardware‑led revenue, smoothing quarterly variability and supporting higher‑visibility bookings.

Operational execution remains a focal point, particularly around manufacturing cadence, system reliability, and service delivery timelines that determine whether projects hit revenue recognition thresholds within the quarter. The company’s recent role in government‑supported initiatives reflects demand for hybrid quantum‑classical testbeds, which can seed multi‑quarter revenue and strengthen reference deployments. With EBIT still negative by design in a scaling phase, the mix of higher‑margin services alongside hardware can influence the gross margin print even without explicit guidance.

While consensus does not include a stated margin forecast, the prior quarter’s 31.32% gross margin offers a baseline for assessing mix. Hardware contributes the bulk of dollars, but services and access can help margin resilience, particularly if hardware pricing and costs are managed alongside roadmap milestones. Management commentary around order timing, partner deployments, and utilization will be decisive for how investors interpret the sustainability of current growth rates.

Largest growth‑potential business — hardware systems and components

Sales of quantum computers and components delivered 3.05 million US dollars last quarter, representing 69.23% of revenue and the clearest lever for near‑term revenue scale. Company‑level revenue grew 198.91% year over year, and the hardware contribution suggests that system deliveries and related components remain the primary driver of that growth. As distribution expands across cloud platforms and reference deployments accumulate, the addressable base for hardware pull‑through should increase, reinforcing the segment’s momentum.

Deal timing is the principal swing factor for this line. Hardware revenue typically clusters around acceptance and delivery milestones, so visibility into the quarterly pipeline and any push‑outs matters for both top‑line accuracy and investor confidence. Hardware can also catalyze adjacent service revenue, as installation, integration, and performance optimization often occur alongside or after shipments; clear disclosures on attach rates and cross‑sell dynamics would help investors gauge durability of the pickup. From a profitability standpoint, disciplined manufacturing and supply chain execution can support stable margins even as unit volumes evolve.

The company’s participation in federally supported hybrid supercomputing initiatives underscores hardware’s strategic importance in blended quantum‑classical architectures. These projects can validate system performance in rigorous settings and demonstrate practical utility, which is useful for both product development and commercial adoption. Any commentary on backlog formation, repeat orders, or expansion in project scope would strengthen the case that hardware growth is not merely episodic.

Key stock‑price drivers in this print

Revenue versus consensus is likely to be the primary share‑price catalyst given the small absolute base and the high year‑over‑year growth expectation of 174.95%. A top‑line outcome that matches or exceeds 5.15 million US dollars, coupled with orderly operating expense, could temper EPS volatility and support the narrative of improving efficiency even with EBIT estimated at -22.38 million US dollars. Conversely, any slippage in hardware deliveries or research milestone timing would be quickly reflected in the quarter’s revenue, which tends to amplify stock price reactions in early‑stage growth names.

Investors will monitor qualitative indicators that inform the next two quarters, including bookings, pipeline, and the status of multi‑party projects with public‑sector funding. Updates on system fidelity progress, platform availability, and partner integrations can shape expectations for utilization and repeat business. The balance between hardware and services may also color margin expectations for future periods, particularly if services show a rising contribution rate that offsets quarter‑to‑quarter variability in hardware timing.

Guidance, if provided, will matter more than usual because the current quarter’s growth is exceptionally high on a small base. Clarity on expected cadence of deliveries, anticipated research milestones, and the breadth of partner engagements would enable investors to parse whether growth rates are normalizing or accelerating into the back half of 2026. Commentary on cost discipline and capital allocation can help contextualize EBIT trajectory and the path toward lower cash burn.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional viewpoints have been predominantly bullish in the last six months, with named coverage reiterating constructive stances ahead of the print. Mizuho has maintained a Buy rating, with recent price targets cited at 27.00, 33.00, and 43.00 US dollars, emphasizing an improving product roadmap and the potential for revenue to scale as deployments broaden. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated a Buy rating with a 30.00 US dollars target, framing the quarter as an opportunity to validate that hardware availability and government‑supported initiatives can translate to tangible bookings and revenue conversion.

Benchmark initiated or reaffirmed a Buy view with a 25.00 US dollars target, highlighting the strengthening feasibility of practical quantum‑classical applications and the potential for diversified demand from public and private sectors. Wedbush’s constructive stance, reflected in a reiterated 40.00 US dollars target around the recent technical milestone, underscores confidence that platform performance improvements are resonating with customers and partners. Alliance Global Partners also reiterated Buy, pointing to the accelerating revenue profile and the strategic value of partnerships.

Across these institutions, the common pillars of the bull case are consistent: consensus revenue growth of 174.95% year over year for the current quarter, the broadening availability of the latest system across multiple cloud channels, and externally funded hybrid supercomputing projects that can seed multi‑quarter demand. Analysts expect the quarter’s narrative to hinge on whether hardware and research projects arrive on schedule and whether management can outline a clearer bridge from today’s negative EBIT toward a path of operating leverage. The majority view remains that successful execution against these project and product milestones can support sustained top‑line expansion and progressively narrower losses, even if quarter‑to‑quarter volatility is part of the interim journey.