Option Focus | NVIDIA’s $2.98 Million Bull Call Spread Targets 2026 Upside, but $1.99 Million Short Put and Net Bearish Flow Reveal Cautious Sentiment

Option Witch
Aug 12

NVIDIA closed at USD 217.50, down 0.02%. The session’s options tape was dominated by striking long-dated structures, most notably a $2.98 million bull call spread and a $1.99 million short put expiring in 2026. While these large trades demonstrate conviction in long-term upside, aggregate large-trade flow was virtually deadlocked with a marginal net bearish tilt, signaling a market that is willing to fund upside exposure but is still cautious about the pace of near-term follow-through.

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Options Indicators

NVDA’s implied volatility stands at 41.90%, and with an IV percentile of 33.47%, current option volatility sits in a broadly neutral zone rather than at an extreme. The IV/HV ratio of 1.06 suggests implied volatility is only slightly above realized volatility, indicating option premiums are not meaningfully stretched; overall, NVDA options appear fairly priced to slightly rich, rather than distinctly cheap or expensive. The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.46.

Large Trades

A bullish call spread with a $2.98 million net debit was the largest displayed trade, built by buying 1,500 Dec. 18, 2026 $220.00 calls and selling 1,500 Dec. 18, 2026 $310.00 calls. With NVDA referenced at $217.50, both strikes were out of the money, making this a classic upside-defined-risk structure. The trader paid a net debit to express a bullish directional view while capping upside above $310.00, which suggests a conviction that NVDA can rally meaningfully over the long term but not necessarily beyond the short-call strike. Strategically, this is a leveraged upside bet rather than premium collection, with risk limited to the $2.98 million net debit.

A short $195.00 put worth $1.99 million was the other displayed large trade, with 2,500 contracts sold against the Nov. 20, 2026 expiration. Since the strike sat below the $217.50 reference price, the put was out of the money, and the trade reflects a bullish-to-neutral stance that benefits from NVDA holding above $195.00 into expiration. As a single-leg put sale, the strategic intent was premium collection, with the seller effectively expressing confidence in downside support while taking on the obligation to buy shares if the stock falls below the strike.

Overall, large-trade sentiment in NVDA was essentially balanced but leaned slightly bearish, with total bullish flow at $11.82 million versus $11.93 million in bearish flow, leaving a net bearish difference of $0.10 million. The directional judgment is therefore mildly bearish, but only marginally so. That conclusion reflects a tape where some notable bullish structures, including the top bull call spread and multiple short-put positions, were offset by substantial bearish call selling and put-buying activity elsewhere in the large-trade set, pointing to a market that is still willing to fund upside exposure but remains cautious about near- to medium-term follow-through.

Strategy Reference

For traders seeking premium collection with a low assignment probability, an out-of-the-money put around the $180.00 level, which lies further below current price and clear of the large short-put strike, could offer a more conservative entry, while a put spread remains a prudent alternative for those aiming to strictly define risk without posting a full uncovered margin.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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