According to a research report, China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. states that CATL has announced its new sodium-ion battery is expected to commence large-scale mass production in Q4 2026. The realization of mass production by the industry leader is set to generate a clear pulling effect across the entire supply chain. Currently, as lithium and copper prices continue to rise, the economic advantages of sodium-ion batteries are rapidly becoming prominent. Looking ahead, with capacity expansion, yield rate improvements, and material cost reductions, the cost curve for sodium-ion batteries is expected to accelerate its downward trend. From a supply chain perspective, the fundamentals of aluminum foil for lithium batteries have already begun to reverse upward. Coupled with the logic of "doubled" usage in sodium-ion batteries and the value-added effect from new products, the aluminum foil segment is entering an upward cycle. The main views of China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. are as follows:

Industry leadership is expected to drive an industry inflection point by 2026. At its 2026 "Extreme Realm Summit" technology event, CATL announced that its new sodium-ion battery is slated for formal large-scale mass production in Q4 2026. The mass production achievement by the industry leader will create a definitive pulling effect on the entire industrial chain. The firm believes that electric vehicles, energy storage, and two-wheelers will be key areas for volume growth. For electric vehicles, sodium-ion batteries address the challenges of electrification in northern regions, and combined with their economic benefits, significant volume growth in mid-to-low-end vehicle segments is anticipated. In energy storage, sodium-ion batteries, leveraging advantages such as a wide operating temperature range, high safety, and high discharge power, are expected to see large-scale adoption. In the two-wheeler sector, with comprehensive comparative advantages in low cost and high performance, sodium-ion batteries have the potential to largely replace lead-acid batteries. The firm forecasts sodium-ion battery shipments to reach 25 GWh, 92 GWh, and 221 GWh in 2026, 2027, and 2028, representing year-on-year growth of 188%, 263%, and 140%, respectively, with potential to exceed 600 GWh by 2030.

Significant cost advantages over lithium and copper; scaling for cost reduction is key. Since 2026, lithium prices have continued to climb, and prices of other metals have also risen substantially. Against the backdrop of the AI era, tight copper supply and a long-term upward trend in copper prices are posing significant supply chain risks and cost pressures for lithium batteries. In contrast, the raw material price system for sodium batteries is stable. Sodium resources are widely distributed globally, with crustal abundance approximately 1,000 times that of lithium. Furthermore, sodium-ion batteries, utilizing aluminum foil current collectors for both cathode and anode, fundamentally eliminate dependence on copper resources, making them an important supplement for future energy strategy. Currently, due to insufficient economies of scale, the cost of sodium-ion batteries (above 0.41 RMB/Wh) remains higher than that of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries (0.36 RMB/Wh). However, as lithium and copper prices continue to rise, the economic viability of sodium-ion batteries is rapidly improving. With future capacity expansion, yield improvements, and material cost reductions, the sodium-ion battery cost curve is expected to decline at an accelerated pace.

From an industry chain perspective, cathode materials are gradually converging, hard carbon is core, and structural opportunities in aluminum foil warrant attention. In the cell segment, leading companies like CATL and BYD possess advantages in customer base and supply chain resources, positioning them to quickly capture strategic high ground. For the aluminum foil segment, the industrialization of sodium-ion batteries will bring clear structural incremental opportunities for aluminum foil current collectors. Currently, the fundamentals of aluminum foil for lithium batteries have already begun to reverse upward. Combined with the "doubled" usage logic for sodium-ion batteries and the value-added effect from new products, the aluminum foil segment is experiencing an upward cyclical trend. For anodes, hard carbon is the current mainstream choice but faces challenges such as reliance on imported raw materials and consistency control, presenting some hurdles for industrialization. Domestic companies like BTR have already made breakthroughs in product performance. Regarding cathode materials, the industry is gradually converging towards two main routes: layered oxides and polyanionic compounds, applied in electric vehicle and energy storage scenarios, respectively. Currently, production primarily relies on co-production lines for NCM and LFP batteries, significantly reducing initial capital expenditure for industrialization.

Risks include potential underperformance in market application, a possible return of lithium battery product prices to lower levels, and slower-than-expected progress in core technologies.