The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 today, according to information obtained from the National Development and Reform Commission.

Monitoring data from the NDRC's price monitoring center shows that during the latest pricing cycle, which ran from 24:00 on July 3rd to 24:00 on July 17th, international oil prices experienced volatile gains.

Effective from 24:00 on July 17th, the retail price ceilings for domestic gasoline and diesel will increase by 300 yuan and 290 yuan per ton, respectively.

On a nationwide average basis, this translates to increases of 0.24 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.25 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.25 yuan per liter for 0-grade diesel.

Following this confirmed price hike, filling a standard 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will now cost approximately 12 yuan more for a private car owner.

International Oil Prices Show Volatility and Gains During Adjustment Period

Throughout the pricing cycle, international oil prices exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, influenced by factors such as the deterioration in US-Iran relations.

The price of Brent crude futures rose from around $72 to approximately $84 per barrel, with the average price for this cycle exceeding that of the previous period.

The escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions, particularly due to military exchanges between the US and Iran, has heightened market concerns over crude supply, leading to a periodic expansion in the geopolitical risk premium for international oil.

Iran's announcement of closing the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent US military blockade have severely disrupted the key shipping channel for Gulf crude oil exports, bringing traffic to a near standstill.

Additional factors contributing to market volatility include recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and a significant drawdown in US strategic petroleum reserves, intensifying the supply-demand dynamics in the crude market.

The NDRC's price monitoring center analysis indicates significant short-term uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape.

Given the recent series of US strikes on Iran and Iran's firm retaliatory measures, the ongoing developments in US-Iran relations warrant close monitoring for their potential impact on international oil prices.