On May 10, the operating rate for PTA capacity dropped to around 60%, reaching its lowest point since October 2021 and nearing the seven-year low of 59%. The question arises: has the PTA operating rate hit bottom?

Concentrated maintenance has driven the operating rate to a five-year low. Starting in April, PTA units entered a phase of concentrated maintenance, coupled with some unplanned reductions and shutdowns, leading to a continuous decline in the daily PTA capacity operating rate throughout May. The primary reason for this sustained drop is the execution of scheduled maintenance across multiple units. Factors such as high social inventories of PTA, production losses from March to April, and PX destocking have converged, resulting in a significant number of PTA production cuts and shutdowns.

Outlook: PTA Operating Rate May Have Bottomed, but Low Utilization Offers Limited Market Support It is estimated that the current PTA operating rate has reached its bottom, likely fluctuating at low levels in the short term. However, the supportive effect of this maintenance cycle on the market is expected to be limited. This is mainly because downstream polyester plants are operating at low rates and have continued to signal potential production cuts. The ongoing decline in polyester operating loads offsets the impact of reduced PTA supply.

Numerous PTA Maintenance Plans; Short-Term Operating Rate to Fluctuate Between 60%-63% Based on the maintenance schedule, a PTA unit in Hainan resumed operations and increased its load on May 12, raising the overall PTA capacity operating rate to 63%, moving away from the 60% threshold. In mid-May, it is estimated that a 2.2 million-ton PTA unit in East China may undergo maintenance, while another 2.2 million-ton unit could restart. This would temporarily lower the PTA operating rate to 60.54% before rebounding to 63%. Maintenance plans for units in Shandong and Jiangsu may be postponed, with no official announcement dates yet. From late May to early-mid June, there may be no additional PTA unit maintenance, suggesting the operating rate has likely bottomed for this phase. Additionally, PTA processing margins improved in May. As of May 12, the average monthly PTA processing fee was 429 yuan per ton, a 59% increase month-on-month, making most recently commissioned PTA units theoretically profitable. The market has not yet factored in blending logic, and it is estimated that short-term PX market conditions will not outperform PTA. The rise in PTA processing fees is favorable for restarting some previously idled PTA capacity.

Downstream Polyester Plant Operations Decline, Significantly Lower Than Last Year Demand this year has fallen short of expectations and is significantly lower than the same period last year, which will weaken the impact of PTA unit maintenance. As of May 12, downstream polyester operating loads were at 81%, a 9 percentage point decrease compared to the same period in 2025. Following announcements of maintenance plans by polyester staple fiber producers, major polyester filament producers have also indicated potential production cuts. The bearish sentiment from potentially further declining demand counteracts the effect of reduced PTA supply. Polyester plants hold high finished product inventories, leading to low enthusiasm for spot PTA procurement. Poor demand negatively impacts the PTA operating rate.

In summary, the short-term PTA operating rate is estimated to have bottomed. Some PTA unit maintenance may be delayed, and improved processing fees are conducive to restarting previously idled capacity, suggesting the operating rate will remain low and volatile in the near term. However, the low PTA operating rate provides limited support to the market, primarily due to declining operations at downstream polyester plants, which are significantly lower than last year's levels.