The oil market is locked in a heated debate over the actual volume of crude flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. While the market widely believes the key waterway is "effectively closed," and has witnessed Iran firing on tankers, tracking data showing a sharp drop in traffic, and global inventories depleting, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright offered a starkly different assessment last week, stating the Strait remains open and oil is flowing at a much higher rate than the market perceives.

A significant gap exists between official data and third-party tracking. Wright claims the seven-day average of oil flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz has risen to 9 million barrels per day. On August 8, the total outflow from the entire Arabian Gulf region even exceeded the pre-war level of 20 million barrels per day. The US Department of Energy, coordinating with the military, says it has the most accurate data, as US warships are on site escorting vessels and providing transit details. In contrast, ship-tracking services like Kpler and Windward show an average daily flow of approximately 4 million barrels through the Strait. Adding in roughly 7 million barrels transported via alternative routes like pipelines from Middle Eastern nations, the total outflow is an estimated 11-12 million barrels per day, still far below pre-war levels. On the day Wright made his claim, tracking data showed only about five ships leaving the Strait, compared to a daily average of over 100 before the war. Matt Smith, Director of Commodity Research at Kpler, stated, "The data we see cannot be reconciled with the numbers he is citing." Kpler utilizes a network of 13,000 receivers across 190 countries and a low-orbit satellite constellation, updating vessel positions every five minutes.

The divergence is partly explained by the surge in the shadow fleet—vessels that turn off or spoof their transponders to avoid attack. In recent weeks, nearly half of the transits Kpler tracked through Hormuz were shadow passages, compared to just one-eighth a month ago. Increased attacks by Iran and its allies have led more ships to switch off their signals in dangerous waters. Hamad Hussain of Capital Economics notes that conflicting statements from the US and Iran are blurring the picture. "When these slow-moving tankers turn their transponders back on after leaving the danger zone, the market may discover that actual outflow is much higher than earlier estimates." Some Wall Street analysts are now more open to the possibility of official US data being correct. Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, commented, "The US is undoubtedly helping a certain volume of oil cross the Strait, and Iran is not stopping everything. In an environment of high skepticism towards the government, it's best to adopt a 'trust but verify' stance." Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan's Global Head of Commodities Strategy, had already begun reassessing the possibility of "secret" oil flows in June, prompted by relatively low oil prices.

The precise flow rate has a limited direct impact on price but is crucial for market stability. Since the start of the war, global oil inventories have fallen by 1.5 to 1.9 billion barrels. The massive stockpiles built up before the war cushioned the supply shock, but "the market cannot draw down inventories forever." A higher volume of oil flowing through the Strait would mean delaying the critical point at which inventories are exhausted. The market currently leans towards believing the US can maintain a certain flow and hopes for a de-escalation of the conflict, which is a key reason oil prices have not soared as they did during the largest supply shocks in history. This data dispute highlights the limitations of traditional vessel tracking in a conflict zone. If the official US figures are closer to the truth, the current supply shortage is overestimated, and upside oil price pressure could be delayed. If the tracking data is more accurate, inventory depletion is accelerating, and market fears of an eventual shortage will resurface. In the short term, investors must simultaneously track official statements, satellite/AIS data, and actual inventory changes. A clear confirmation of either side could trigger violent price swings.