Abstract

Li Auto will report second-quarter 2026 results on August 26, 2026 Pre-MKt; investors will watch revenue trajectory, margin stabilization, and loss control after recent pressure.

Market Forecast

Consensus gathered from the company’s indicated forecast points to second-quarter 2026 revenue of 26.64 billion RMB, an estimated year-over-year decline of 17.31%, with EBIT around -1.26 billion RMB and EPS near -0.02 (YoY change -101.28%). Forecasted margin metrics were not disclosed; we therefore emphasize the company’s implied top-line and earnings path. The core business is expected to hinge on vehicle sales volume and pricing discipline, with services and other revenue offering incremental support amid model-cycle adjustments. The most promising vector remains software, services, and new-energy ecosystem monetization, though near-term growth will still be led by vehicle deliveries; specific forecast breakdowns are not provided.

Last Quarter Review

Li Auto’s first-quarter 2026 results showed revenue of 22.98 billion RMB, a gross profit margin of 7.87%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.29 billion RMB, a net profit margin of -9.96%, and adjusted EPS of -2.10, with revenue declining 11.35% year over year. Operating performance was pressured by inventory adjustments and model transitions, and EBIT of -2.999 billion RMB reflected higher operating expenses relative to revenue. Main business highlights: vehicle sales generated 21.53 billion RMB, while other sales and services contributed 1.45 billion RMB; year-over-year growth rates by segment were not provided in the dataset.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: vehicle sales and delivery execution

The quarter’s stock performance sensitivity is most tied to deliveries and realized pricing. Consensus for total revenue at 26.64 billion RMB implies sequential growth from the prior quarter despite a challenging year-over-year base, suggesting the company targets improved production cadence and delivery conversion. Watch for the balance between promotional activity and margin containment; the previous quarter’s 7.87% gross margin leaves limited room for further discount-induced dilution without offsetting cost efficiencies. Product-mix shifts can aid gross profit per vehicle if higher-trim configurations or newer platforms gain traction. Execution on deliveries, logistics, and channel throughput will determine whether quarterly revenue re-accelerates toward the guided figure. Unit cost improvements from supply-chain normalization, component price trends, and manufacturing learning curves will be critical to stabilizing automotive gross margin.

Most promising business: software, services, and ecosystem attachment

While vehicles dominate revenue, the company’s “other sales and services” line at 1.45 billion RMB demonstrates a base that can scale with installed fleet size. Software features, connectivity, maintenance and energy services can lift lifetime value, smoothing cyclicality in vehicle shipments. Although not yet a primary earnings driver, incremental attach rates could lift blended margin, offering upside to EBIT if monetization outpaces hardware discounting. In the near term, investors will monitor subscription uptake and paid feature penetration as early signals. A rising share of higher-margin services could offset part of the hardware margin pressure. Any commentary on autonomous features, energy services, or digital upgrades may reframe the medium-term profitability mix even if immediate revenue contributions are modest.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter: margins, opex discipline, and cash burn

Profitability restoration is the pivot. The last quarter’s net margin of -9.96% underlines the need for disciplined operating expenses and better gross conversion. If revenue lifts to 26.64 billion RMB while EBIT narrows to about -1.26 billion RMB, investors may infer early operating leverage, but the implied EPS of -0.02 suggests breakeven remains tentative. Component cost deflation, manufacturing yield gains, and warranty cost trends will influence gross margin. On the expense side, sales and marketing efficiency and R&D prioritization will likely govern the path to cash-neutral operations. Any progress signals on cost-down initiatives and mix improvement could be rewarded, while signs of persistent discounting or elevated opex would weigh on sentiment.

Analyst Opinions

Caution dominates recent institutional commentary. The prevailing view expects a year-over-year revenue contraction and lingering margin pressure despite sequential recovery, pointing to conservative positioning into the print. Commentary emphasizes delivery recovery trajectories and loss containment as the key near-term validation points, with limited appetite to underwrite aggressive margin expansion until cost-down and mix-shift evidence accumulates. Within this cautious camp, analysts scrutinize EBIT burn and cash discipline, expecting management to reaffirm a measured pace of investment and focus on improving unit economics in the second half of 2026.