Abstract

NatWest Group will release its second-quarter 2026 results on July 31, 2026, Pre-MKt. The preview evaluates market expectations for revenue, margins, net profit, and adjusted EPS, and consolidates the six-month media and analyst sentiment to frame probable outcomes and price drivers.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to an increase in adjusted EPS to 0.36 per share with a 34.45% year-over-year rise, alongside expectations that total revenue will grow, while margins remain supported by strong net interest dynamics; gross profit margin guidance is not disclosed, and net profit or margin forecasts are not explicit. NatWest Group’s main businesses are Commercial & Institutional, Retail Banking, and Private Banking, with Commercial & Institutional contributing the largest revenue; Private Banking appears poised to offer incremental growth driven by fee income.

Last Quarter Review

NatWest Group reported net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.51 billion US dollars for the prior quarter, a quarter-on-quarter change of 1.90%, with a net profit margin of 36.93%; adjusted EPS was 0.36 amid limited gross margin disclosure. A key highlight was the resilient net interest margin that underpinned earnings quality despite mixed credit trends. The main business mix included Commercial & Institutional revenue of 2.24 billion US dollars, Retail Banking revenue of 1.68 billion US dollars, Private Banking revenue of 0.29 billion US dollars, and Central items and other revenue of 0.15 billion US dollars.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Banking Franchise

The core franchise spans Commercial & Institutional and Retail Banking, which collectively anchor earnings through net interest income, customer activity, and lending spreads. As policy rates remain elevated relative to pre-tightening cycles, asset yields are sustaining net interest margins, while deposit pricing competition moderates incremental pressure in the quarter. Management emphasis on balance-sheet discipline and credit underwriting supports stable impairment charges, though macro sensitivity persists through corporate stress pockets. Transactional activity in Commercial & Institutional is steady, with treasury solutions and payment services lifting fee momentum, offering a buffer against rate-normalization headwinds later in the year.

Most Promising Business: Private Banking

Private Banking, while smaller in absolute revenue, benefits from diversified income streams through fees on assets under management, advisory, and lending to affluent clients. The business can translate market-level equity and fixed income stabilization into higher client activity and fee accruals. With pricing relatively less rate-sensitive than mass retail deposits, the unit provides a complementary offset to margin variability. Investments in digital wealth onboarding and targeted relationship coverage continue to improve wallet share, making this segment a potential contributor to revenue mix quality even if headline net interest tailwinds fade.

Key Share Price Drivers This Quarter

Stock performance will hinge on adjusted EPS delivery relative to the 0.36 estimate and management commentary on net interest margin durability. Credit quality signals—particularly Stage 2 migrations and impairment trends—could reset expectations on forward profitability if deterioration accelerates. Capital returns, including dividends and buybacks, will frame investor response, with the resilience of CET1 guiding sustainability of distributions; any incremental guidance on cost efficiency and risk-weighted asset optimization could further shape sentiment.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish opinions hold the majority, with analysts noting supportive net interest margin and measured provisioning as catalysts for EPS stability. Several institutions emphasize that balance sheet resilience and a diversified income base reduce downside risk to near-term earnings. Recent ratings commentary highlights a constructive stance on capital return potential and operational execution, reflecting confidence that the bank can meet or modestly exceed the quarter’s EPS benchmark.