Abstract

United Rentals will report second‑quarter results on July 22, 2026 Post-Mkt; investors expect mid‑single to high‑single digit top‑line growth and solid earnings leverage, with attention on rental rates, fleet utilization, and progress in margins after recent cost actions.

Market Forecast

Consensus indicates second‑quarter revenue of 4.22 billion US dollars, which implies year‑over‑year growth of 8.15%, alongside an estimated adjusted EPS of 11.53, up 9.37% year over year; projected EBIT is 1.09 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.11% year over year. Forecasts do not specify margin guidance, but the focus remains on operating efficiency and rate discipline to support earnings conversion relative to revenue. Equipment rental remains the primary revenue driver and is expected to benefit from sustained large‑project activity and improved cost structure, with sequentially better specialty performance versus earlier periods. The company’s core Equipment Rental line generated 3.42 billion US dollars last quarter; based on the revenue mix and current quarter projections, this area is positioned to capture the bulk of the expected growth.

Last Quarter Review

United Rentals delivered first‑quarter revenue of 3.99 billion US dollars, up 7.15% year over year, with a gross profit margin of 37.01%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 531.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 13.32%, and adjusted EPS of 9.71, up 9.59% year over year. The company exceeded street expectations on both revenue and EPS, reflecting better execution and lower headwinds from fleet repositioning relative to the prior year period. Core Equipment Rental contributed 3.42 billion US dollars, while used equipment sales were 350.00 million US dollars, services and other were 92.00 million US dollars, new equipment sales were 84.00 million US dollars, and contractor supplies accounted for 40.00 million US dollars; performance was led by general rental strength and sequential improvement in specialty profitability, with large projects underpinning demand trends.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Rental Operations

The second quarter is projected to show continued expansion in the core rental book, supported by expected revenue of 4.22 billion US dollars and the associated earnings ramp to an estimated adjusted EPS of 11.53. The blend of rental rate discipline and seasonal utilization tailwinds typically produces favorable revenue conversion in this period, and EBIT is estimated at 1.09 billion US dollars, suggesting healthy operating leverage. Management’s earlier progress on curbing fleet repositioning costs and aligning labor and logistics to volume should help protect gross margin flow‑through even without formal margin guidance. Mix remains constructive: high‑demand categories tied to large projects continue to anchor volume, while the pricing environment and fleet allocation strategy are geared toward optimizing returns rather than raw unit growth. Sequentially, cost normalization versus prior disruptions has helped margins, and the company’s first‑quarter beat and guidance raise established a base that points to mid‑to‑high single‑digit revenue growth for the second quarter. A watch item is the balance of rate versus utilization: robust utilization can allow steady rates, while isolated soft spots could require fine‑tuning that modestly tempers price growth. Overall, the forecasted revenue growth profile aligns with the company’s emphasis on profitability and capital efficiency in the rental fleet, reinforcing the expectation for earnings to grow faster than revenue if cost controls hold.

Specialty and High‑Margin Solutions

Specialty solutions and high‑value applications—particularly power, HVAC, and trench—remain critical to margin resilience, with performance having improved sequentially in the prior quarter even as some categories lagged year‑over‑year. The quarter is set up for better throughput as demand from large projects continues at pace, supporting the incremental margin relative to general rental; this complements the broader rental mix and offers potential upside to EBIT if activity intensity persists. Analysts highlighted that large‑project execution and cost reduction were key to the first‑quarter upside, and those same forces are relevant to the second quarter as project schedules reach peak seasonal cadence. A notable operational lever is the company’s ability to price and allocate specialty assets to projects with tighter timelines and higher service intensity, driving superior returns per unit. Although used equipment markets have normalized versus prior peaks—reducing the windfall from disposals—sequentially improving specialty margins and disciplined fleet refresh practices should partly offset that drag. Any incremental scale from project‑linked rentals tends to support better labor absorption and logistics efficiency, contributing to margin protection. Against this backdrop, specialty’s improving sequential trajectory and the durability of project‑driven demand make this area a meaningful contributor to the expected year‑over‑year growth in earnings.

Stock Price Sensitivities This Quarter

Share performance around the print is likely to hinge on the triangulation of revenue delivery, rate commentary, and margin quality. A top‑line near 4.22 billion US dollars that comes with clear evidence of pricing discipline and utilization momentum would validate the expected 9.37% year‑over‑year growth in adjusted EPS. Conversely, any signs of rate pressure or heavier‑than‑planned repositioning/transport costs could weigh on gross margin and temper the earnings beat potential even if revenue meets forecast. Commentary on used equipment dispositions will be closely parsed: a healthy market allows churn of older assets at reasonable economics, while further normalization below recent historical peaks can trim non‑rental contribution. Capital allocation also matters for sentiment—investors are attentive to the pace of repurchases and the dividend cadence announced earlier in the year, with incremental actions potentially signaling confidence in cash generation. Finally, management’s tone on the cadence of large projects through the back half, combined with any color on booking visibility and supply chain lead times, will frame how durable the growth trajectory looks beyond the quarter. On balance, the setup skews positively if margins show continuity with the first quarter’s improvements and if commentary affirms sustained project activity, while execution on cost controls remains the swing factor for multiple expansion.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views dominate the recent research flow, with approximately a nine‑to‑one skew toward positive ratings versus outright negative calls; numerous price target increases over the past two months underline confidence in the earnings trajectory into the second quarter. Wells Fargo reiterated a positive stance and raised its price objective to 1,245 US dollars, tying its outlook to continued operational execution and the earnings conversion expected from seasonal and project‑driven demand. RBC Capital maintained an upbeat view with a 1,119 US‑dollar target, citing resilient fundamentals through mid‑year and scope for mid‑to‑high single‑digit revenue expansion to translate into high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit EPS growth. J.P. Morgan kept an Overweight rating and recently moved its target to 1,100 US dollars, reflecting an outlook that emphasizes rate discipline, cost control progress, and supportive large‑project activity into the summer months. UBS moved its target to 1,300 US dollars, aligning with the thesis that second‑half non‑residential activity can sustain EBITDA growth and provide a cushion for margins if cost actions continue to hold. KeyBanc also lifted its target to 1,250 US dollars and reiterated an Overweight view, echoing the theme that guidance momentum and project exposure support durable earnings quality. The minority view includes a Sell from Barclays with a 600 US‑dollar target, flagging concern about normalization in used equipment pricing and the risk that rising depreciation and logistics could offset revenue growth. However, this perspective has been outweighed by multiple institutions reiterating Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings and raising targets across May to July. The balance of commentary emphasizes the company’s ability to drive margin gains via a richer mix and improved logistics, while the revenue baseline has been supported by large projects that enhance visibility into the near‑term booking window. Analysts also point to better‑than‑anticipated margin performance in the first quarter—particularly in rental and general rental lines—and expect that dynamic to persist if operational efficiency holds, validating the step‑up in EPS implied by current estimates. Taken together, the prevailing institutional stance anticipates a clean second‑quarter print around the mid‑single to high‑single digit revenue growth mark, with sufficient cost control and mix tailwinds to keep adjusted EPS trending above revenue growth.