Key Market Developments and Economic Data

Macroeconomic Front

During the week of July 24, 2026, the precious metals market continued its volatile trend, with a complex and unpredictable geopolitical landscape. Reports indicate that Pakistan is exploring the possibility of restarting stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran. The US has now conducted military strikes against Iran for 14 consecutive days, while Iran has retaliated by attacking US military targets in several Middle Eastern countries. The Houthi spokesperson stated that the Bab el-Mandeb strait has not been closed, and recently announced maritime measures are only related to shipping bound for Saudi Arabia. On the US side, President Trump, while discussing a "strategy for exiting" the war with Iran at the White House, said the US has two options: continue the current military campaign, potentially intensifying strikes to gradually dismantle Iran's military capabilities, or seek a negotiated agreement. Trump stated that Iran wants a deal but is "not ready" yet. The US can continue its current approach or escalate the strikes more rapidly. The US is still in negotiations with Iran. Meanwhile, the US has also taken action on tariffs: President Trump announced an investigation under Section 301 into actions taken by the European Union against US technology companies. He stated that all fines imposed by the EU on US firms would be voided, and the US plans to impose high tariffs on the EU as soon as possible. The fines mentioned include the $15 billion penalty on Apple, the $3 billion fine on Meta, the $2.5 billion fine on Amazon, and penalties on many other companies.

Fundamental Data

During the week of July 24, 2026, gold warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) stood at 112,641 kilograms, a change of -6 kilograms from the previous week. Silver warehouse receipts changed by -11,105 kilograms to 978,934 kilograms. For COMEX inventories, gold inventory changed by -101,498.30 ounces to 27,017,403.73 ounces, while silver inventory changed by 2,371,557.95 ounces to 330,899,011.34 ounces.

In the precious metals ETF space, as of the week of July 23 (latest data), the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) held 1,009.30 tonnes, while the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) held 14,939 tonnes. According to the CFTC report for the week ending July 21, 2026, speculative net long positions in gold were 123,586 contracts, and silver net long positions were 10,003 contracts.

During the week of July 24, 2026, the CSI 300 Index rose 2.65% from the previous week, while the electronic components sector index, which is related to precious metals, gained 2.76%. The photovoltaic sector index fell 0.66%.

Regarding the photovoltaic price index, as of the latest data on July 20, 2026, it stood at 14.24, unchanged from the previous period. The photovoltaic manager index was 91.67, a decrease of 5.52 on a month-over-month basis.

Strategy

Gold: Neutral – Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict shows no signs of a turning point, with both sides maintaining a tough stance. A continued rise in the oil price benchmark could reverse market expectations for future inflation to cool down. Precious metals prices are likely to remain influenced by the US-Iran situation and market inflation expectations in the short term. Therefore, a neutral outlook is maintained. For operational purposes, if a significant price decline occurs due to a liquidity shock, gold is still recommended for a buy-on-dips hedging strategy, with an operating range of 860 yuan/gram to 910 yuan/gram.

Silver: Neutral – The logic for silver is similar to gold, but given silver's inherently higher volatility, while a buy-on-dips hedging strategy can still be adopted, greater attention must be paid to position management and strict stop-loss execution.

Arbitrage: Pause

Options: Pause

Risk

Overseas liquidity shock