UK Jobless Rate Holds, Wage Growth Unchanged, Bolstering Bets on Bank of England Pause

Deep News
Jul 21

Recent data from the UK's Office for National Statistics reveals the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9% for the three months to May, matching the previous period and coming in below economists' forecasts of 5.0%.

Over the same period, the annual rate of wage growth excluding bonuses remained at 3.4%, marking the third consecutive month without change, which signals a stabilization in business cost pressures.

The chief economist at a leading professional accounting body noted the figures indicate the labour market remains fragile, with high employment taxes and economic uncertainty stemming from the conflict in Iran continuing to dampen businesses' willingness to hire.

The elevated level of unemployment further strengthens market expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy meeting next week.

Although policymakers have previously warned they would respond if energy prices, pushed higher by the Iran conflict, began feeding into broader inflation, the cooling labour market suggests weak domestic demand is limiting companies' ability to raise prices.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated last week that while the Middle East situation remains "unstable", the pass-through of higher energy costs to UK inflation has so far been limited, with evidence continuing to be relatively weak.

Data shows the Consumer Price Index unexpectedly held steady at 2.8% in May, below expectations. Figures for June, due for release this Wednesday, are anticipated to show a further decline in inflation.

Analysts concurrently caution that an escalation of the Middle East conflict could further suppress hiring and business confidence, weighing on the labour market, while keeping energy prices elevated and increasing the risk that inflation proves more persistent than policymakers currently anticipate.

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