After finishing my morning run, I found group chats buzzing about Unitree's stock price getting cut in half, alongside the Hang Seng Tech index taking a beating dragged down by Alibaba. Some are even calling Unitree a scam scheme, but that's a stretch—with just over 7% of shares in free float, who exactly would be pulling off a pump-and-dump here?

Remember how the 90s-born founder kept a stern face throughout the entire listing process? Two theories emerged: one suggests regulators instructed him not to appear too elated, while the other claims the IPO was driven by vested interest groups behind the scenes, with the founder having little say and being reluctantly swept into the listing.

Let's circle back to the original purpose of the capital market. Tracing it to its roots, the stock market was never designed to let retail investors get rich—it exists to serve national strategy and development. Remember how PetroChina peaked on its very first trading day? The capital market is a strategic and financing tool for the nation, meant to support industries. At its IPO, the stock was priced at 219 times price-to-earnings, 7 times price-to-book, and 35 times price-to-sales.

The pricing benchmark of the capital market should be a company's intrinsic value. I won't rehash Buffett, Munger, or Duan Yongping here—buying a stock means buying a business, and buying a business means buying the discounted cash flow of its future. Value reversion is inevitable; it's only a matter of sooner or later.

Equity value that can be freely traded and cashed out at any time is true value. Locked-up controlling stakes should trade at a discount. Now, back to the national strategy—companies like Yangtze Memory and Blue Arrow in the IPO queue are eagerly waiting for funding.

Low interest rates are indeed pushing money out of savings, and with gold no longer an option, capital is being herded into the stock market. Companies aligned with national strategy get the green light for speculative trading, while those that aren't receive warning letters from the exchanges. This has given rise to a valuation system centered on policy orientation, rather than the market's own price discovery mechanism.

Under this framework, it's all about allocating equity supply and demand in a zero-sum game, especially since many of these companies have no revenue or profits to speak of. In a zero-sum game, your gains come straight from your counterparty's losses—so before you buy, you'd better scrutinize who your counterparty is and what their cost basis looks like.

In AI, both model and cloud segments have strong overseas benchmarks performing well. But embodied intelligence currently lacks a solid comparable, and its business model is still undefined. Unfortunately, the industry hasn't reached that stage yet—this is premature forcing.

Back to Alibaba (BABA)—its strategic pivoting has been dizzying. This time last year, it was all about instant retail and a food delivery war, and now that's completely off the table. The company is desperate to shed the image of outdated capacity and transform into a tech firm. Remember when Munger reflected on his investment mistakes and called Alibaba essentially a damn retailer? Ma likely realized that label was too lowbrow—he's got bigger ambitions, a sea of stars to chase.

Unfortunately, retail is under attack from all sides, and AI demands bottomless funding. But no worries—there's still the capital market ATM to tap. Plus, the company is now aligned with national strategy, and when the country calls, it must step up. As for retail investors, it's time to raise your awareness: true patriotism means buying shares for the nation.

That said, the only commercially viable AI model so far is 2B coding, and domestic player WorkBuddy has already seized the first-mover advantage. AI is undeniably a mega-trend, but it's also a protracted war. What does a prolonged conflict demand? Dig deep tunnels, stockpile grain, and bide your time before claiming victory. Don't forget that the strongest cash-flow players domestically are ByteDance, Tencent, and PDD. Who has the deepest tunnels, the most grain, and the lowest profile?

In any case, every company is racing to go public right now. IPOs are cyclical—strike while the iron's hot. Listings are indeed worth celebrating, but what founders and shareholders are really toasting is finally having a cash-out channel or a get-out-of-jail-free card—not the chance to share the fruits of the company's growth with the broader investing public.