According to a report from the U.S. government, global crude oil production and transportation are anticipated to rebound to pre-conflict levels by the end of this year, sooner than earlier projections.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated in its monthly report that most of the crude oil production halted due to the conflict is expected to be restored by the first quarter of 2027.

This latest forecast represents a significant adjustment from the previous round. The EIA had earlier projected that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would normalize by early next year, while some Middle Eastern crude production would continue to face disruptions for several years following the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the conflict involving Iran.

The EIA now forecasts that Brent crude prices will average $74 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and $65 per barrel in 2027. This is notably lower than the previous prediction of $79 per barrel for next year.