Abstract

QCR Holdings Inc will report its second-quarter 2026 results after market close on July 22, 2026, with current expectations pointing to revenue of 80.68 million US dollars and adjusted EPS of 1.91, as investors monitor net interest margin trajectories, deposit costs, and noninterest income normalization.

Market Forecast

For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, consensus points to revenue of 80.68 million US dollars, implying 22.11% year-over-year growth; adjusted EPS is projected at 1.91, up 19.96% year over year, and EBIT is anticipated at 50.41 million US dollars, up 17.56% year over year. Forecasts for gross margin or net profit margin were not provided and thus are not included here.

The company’s principal revenue engine in the prior quarter remained its core commercial banking activities, and the outlook for this quarter hinges on the balance between earning-asset yields and funding costs, with resilience in fee-based streams expected to offer incremental support. Within the portfolio of activities, “Other” revenue—which encompasses noninterest streams—has potential to outperform if customer activity stays firm; it contributed 37.00 million US dollars last quarter, though year-over-year segment growth was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the first quarter of 2026, QCR Holdings Inc delivered revenue of 67.44 million US dollars, adjusted EPS of 1.99 (up 30.07% year over year), GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders of 33.38 million US dollars, and a net profit margin of 37.96%; the company did not disclose a gross margin figure. Sequentially, net income declined by 6.40%, reflecting typical seasonality and the funding-cost dynamics that characterized early 2026.

A notable highlight was earnings quality: adjusted EPS outpaced market expectations, reflecting disciplined expense management and stable asset yields despite ongoing funding competition. From a revenue-mix perspective, core commercial banking contributed 94.70 million US dollars on a gross basis and “Other” revenue added 37.00 million US dollars, offset by 41.32 million US dollars of inter-segment eliminations; year-over-year changes by segment were not reported, but the composition underscores the ongoing importance of spread income and the supportive role of noninterest revenue.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Core commercial banking (net interest income and spread dynamics)

The linchpin for this quarter remains spread income, driven by the tug-of-war between asset yields and funding costs. Loan yields have continued to benefit from repricing at higher rates and selective growth in relationship-driven credits, while asset sensitivity in certain variable-rate books can still provide a cushion when benchmark rates remain stable. On the funding side, deposit costs are a focal point: if remixing toward interest-bearing categories is moderating and competition for term deposits is easing, net interest margin could stabilize versus the first quarter. The consensus calls for revenue of 80.68 million US dollars and EBIT of 50.41 million US dollars, indicating markets expect operational leverage to continue even without a material expansion in margin. Credit costs are another moving part; benign credit trends would allow more of pre-provision revenue to fall through, whereas an uptick in provisioning could soften incremental profitability. The sequential revenue step-up implied by guidance reflects not only earning-asset momentum but also a calmer funding backdrop relative to the volatility seen earlier in the year. In practice, the quarter will be judged on granularity: balance-sheet mix shifts, loan growth in commercial categories, the pace of core deposit growth, and management’s commentary on the trajectory of deposit betas into the second half. If funding costs show signs of plateauing and loan growth continues in targeted relationship segments, investors could read the quarter as an inflection toward steadier net interest margin. Conversely, if remixing remains elevated or promotional pricing persists, margin stabilization could be pushed out, leaving the revenue line more reliant on volumes and fee income to deliver.

Most promising business: Fee-based and other noninterest income

Noninterest income, captured in “Other” revenue of 37.00 million US dollars last quarter, remains a potential swing factor for the current print. Areas such as wealth and trust services, bankcard fees, mortgage-related income, and service charges often respond to customer activity levels and capital markets tone, making them a useful offset when spread income is rangebound. This quarter, activity-based fees can benefit from a modest improvement in client engagement and seasonal normalization, translating to a steadier contribution that diversifies the top line. Management’s steady hand on expense discipline has historically amplified the impact of incremental fee dollars on bottom-line performance; if that pattern holds, modest upward moves in fee revenue can produce a disproportionate EPS benefit. An area to watch is the durability of advisory and fiduciary fees, which tend to be stickier and more recurring than transaction-driven lines; resilience here would signal stability in recurring revenue and better visibility into the second half. Another variable is mortgage and real-estate–adjacent income; while not the largest driver, stabilized rates can coax improved application and secondary-market activity, supporting fee capture without requiring a large capital commitment. The composition of fee growth also matters—higher-quality, low-volatility sources can help reduce earnings variability and underpin a consistent capital return narrative. In the aggregate, even modest noninterest income growth layered on top of stable net interest margin would make the projected adjusted EPS of 1.91 feel more achievable.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter

The first determinant is net interest margin directionality. A flat-to-slightly-improving margin would validate the outlook for 22.11% year-over-year revenue growth and could anchor confidence around the 19.96% EPS growth expectation; a weaker margin, in contrast, would raise questions about funding pressures persisting into late 2026. The second determinant is credit, particularly any signs of normalization in charge-offs or nonperforming trends; contained credit costs would support operating leverage, while idiosyncratic reserve builds would weigh on the earnings conversion of revenue. The third is the blend of fee income and operating expenses. Should noninterest income tick higher and expenses remain controlled, the implied EBIT of 50.41 million US dollars becomes more credible and the quarter’s operating margin narrative improves. Capital deployment adds a fourth dimension: the recently maintained quarterly cash dividend of 0.10 US dollars per share evidences a conservative return stance; any commentary on capital priorities—whether organic growth, selective balance-sheet optimization, or buybacks—will influence how investors interpret earnings resilience. Finally, forward guidance and tone matter. If management communicates that deposit cost inflation is trending down and that new loan yields remain attractive on a risk-adjusted basis, expectations for the back half of the year could firm, giving the stock support. Conversely, any signals of still-elevated competition for deposits or a slower loan pipeline would likely elicit scrutiny of the revenue cadence implied by today’s projections.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent previews and market commentary within the January 1, 2026 to July 15, 2026 window, the balance of views skews constructive, yielding a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 100% to 0%. Commentaries point to a positive setup for the June quarter, with consensus anticipating revenue of 80.68 million US dollars and adjusted EPS of 1.91, underpinned by steadier funding dynamics and a gradual recovery in noninterest income. Analysts tracking the name have emphasized that the first quarter’s adjusted EPS performance comfortably exceeded expectations, suggesting that disciplined expense control and spread management can carry through to the midyear print even if top-line growth moderates from peak rates. The tone around credit has remained measured, with expectations that provisioning will normalize rather than spike, allowing pre-provision operating income to translate efficiently into earnings. In synthesizing these perspectives, the prevailing view is that stable deposit costs and resilient fee-based activities can support the 17.56% EBIT growth forecast and the 19.96% EPS growth projection for the current quarter. Bulls also highlight the sustained dividend of 0.10 US dollars per share as a signal of earnings stability and capital prudence, framing potential incremental capital actions as optional rather than required to meet targets. While some monitors earlier noted that revenue has occasionally lagged aggregate estimates even when EPS holds up, the majority stance heading into July 22, 2026 is that operating leverage and margin discipline position the company to deliver on the current quarter’s projections without requiring aggressive balance-sheet expansion. Overall, the majority of analyst voices remain positive, anchored by the expectation that net interest margin stabilization and a healthier mix of noninterest income can keep earnings growth on track through the second half of the year, validating the current consensus for revenue and EPS growth in the quarter to be reported.