Abstract

On Holding AG will release its quarterly results on May 12, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes market expectations for revenue, profitability, EPS, and segment momentum, and evaluates institutional sentiment alongside key catalysts and watchpoints for the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of 822.90 million US dollars, adjusted EPS of 0.27, and EBIT of 103.74 million, with year-over-year growth of 20.80% for revenue, 23.45% for EPS, and 48.15% for EBIT. Forecast gross profit margin and net profit margin are not explicitly provided; the last reported gross margin and net margin were 63.91% and 9.29% respectively, serving as reference for potential trajectory. Management’s focus remains on scaling wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels, with product breadth in performance running and adjacent categories expected to underpin growth. Direct-to-consumer is viewed as the most promising engine, given rising brand heat and mix shift toward higher-value franchises that generally carry higher contribution margins.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, revenue was 743.80 million US dollars, gross profit margin was 63.91%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 69.10 million US dollars with a net profit margin of 9.29%, and adjusted EPS was 0.25, up against a year-over-year revenue increase of 22.62% and a year-over-year EPS change of -30.56%. Quarter-on-quarter, net profit declined by 41.88%. A key highlight was revenue outperformance versus estimates by 19.46 million US dollars, supported by broad-based demand. By business, wholesale delivered 1.75 billion US dollars and direct-to-consumer delivered 1.26 billion US dollars over the last reported period, with the latter presenting the greatest runway for mix-led margin accretion.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main commercial engine: Wholesale

Wholesale remains the largest revenue driver by scale, with the last reported period indicating approximately 58% of sales from this channel. The current quarter’s shipment cadence into key accounts is expected to remain supportive, helped by shelf gains and wider representation in specialty and sporting goods. Sell-through quality in wholesale often dictates reorder velocity; watch for commentary on inventory health and cancellation rates, which can quickly change the revenue trajectory in a softening consumer backdrop.

Pricing and product cycle should help stabilize the channel’s contribution to gross margin even if freight and FX introduce noise. A broadly normalizing logistics environment compared with last year can reduce volatility, while disciplined allocation to high-conversion doors can limit markdown spillover. The degree to which management signals sustainable reorder trends will be crucial for the durability of the 20.80% topline growth forecast this quarter.

Fastest-growing profit lever: Direct-to-consumer

Direct-to-consumer has been the consistent share gainer within the mix and typically supports higher blended gross margins due to full-price capture and richer attachment rates. With ongoing digital traffic growth and improving conversion, DTC is positioned to contribute outsized margin dollars even if unit growth moderates. The brand’s product pipeline in performance running and lifestyle crossovers tends to amplify DTC sales, especially around new colorways and limited releases.

Operationally, continued investments in e-commerce experience, personalization, and inventory availability are likely to underpin conversion gains. If DTC’s mix inches higher from the last reported 42% area, blended gross margin could track above the prior quarter’s 63.91% reference. Investors should parse commentary on promotional cadence and return rates, which are pivotal for EPS leverage in a quarter where EBIT is forecast to rise by 48.15% year over year.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter

- Margin mix and pricing: Any evidence of improved channel mix toward DTC and reduced promotions could push gross margin above the last quarter’s 63.91% benchmark and support EPS outperformance versus the 0.27 estimate. Conversely, any unexpected promotional intensity in North America or Europe could cap upside. - Supply chain and inventory execution: Clean inventory and normalized freight can translate into higher sell-through and fewer clearance actions. Watch for comments on forward weeks of supply and cancellation trends in wholesale, as these often foreshadow the next quarter’s revenue path. - Geographic breadth and new category traction: Expansion in key regions and adjacent categories can sustain revenue momentum near the projected 20.80% growth. Strong adoption of newer franchises can offset any softness in mature styles and stabilize average selling prices.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional commentary through this year has leaned constructive, with a clear majority in the bullish camp relative to cautious views. Positive stances often cite the scalability of the wholesale network, DTC margin accretion, and a robust product cycle that supports the 20.80% revenue growth and 23.45% EPS growth forecasts for the quarter. Several analysts highlight upside risk to consensus if DTC mix rises and promotions remain contained, reinforcing a favorable risk-reward into the print.

Among widely followed voices, supportive opinions point to an improving EBIT trajectory aligned with the 48.15% year-over-year forecast and emphasize that inventory normalization could convert into cleaner sell-through and higher conversion in owned channels. Bulls also underscore that the company’s last quarter revenue outperformed expectations by 19.46 million US dollars, suggesting healthy underlying demand heading into the current period. Overall, the balance of commentary indicates expectations clustered around a beat on revenue with sensitivity on gross margin mix and promotional tone; the consensus majority expects a constructive update with potential upward revisions if margin discipline is demonstrated.