During the National Day holiday, activity levels in real estate markets across multiple regions picked up. Based on visits to first-tier markets including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, new home and second-hand home transaction volumes saw varying degrees of growth under the combined effects of multiple policies such as mortgage interest subsidies, "trade-in" subsidies, and existing home sales, indicating a warming market.
In terms of overall transactions, data from the Centaline Property Research Institute shows that during the National Day holiday, new home subscription volumes in 50 key cities nationwide rose more than 15% compared to the same period last year. Compared to late September before the policies took effect, visit and viewing volumes increased significantly. At the sales site of the new home project Jiatang Yaxu in Beijing's Fengtai District, many homebuyers were consulting and making selections. A real estate agent told reporters that the project has a total of over 500 units, and as of October 5, the online signing rate had exceeded 70%, with transaction heat rising compared to before the holiday. From Fengtai to Changping, from Daxing to Chaoyang, multiple hot real estate projects in Beijing accelerated their absorption rates during the National Day holiday, with viewing and subscription activity further increasing.
The Yuqinyuan project in the Zhoukang area of Shanghai's Pudong New District also experienced a "viewing rush." "This development has benefited from the favorable effects of Shanghai's real estate policy optimizations known as 'Shanghai Six Measures' and 'Shanghai Eight Measures,' and has shown a warming sales momentum since its launch this year," a salesperson told reporters. According to online signing data disclosed by Shanghai's online real estate data platform "Online Real Estate," the project's sales volume has approached 100 units.
On October 2, reporters observed crowds at the sales office of the Poly Haiyun project in Guangzhou's Haizhu District. Huang, the project's marketing manager, introduced that the project has fully opened its complete real-scene display area, truly achieving "what you see is what you get," and combined with recent restocking and additional launches, market attention has been high. "On September 30 and October 1, the project accumulated over 500 visiting groups and closed more than 80 deals." It is reported that from October 1 to October 6, the project's visitor count exceeded 800 groups, with transaction value of approximately 600 million yuan.
In the view of industry insiders, the National Day holiday is also an important window for observing the recovery quality of the "Silver October." Looking back at "Golden September," new home sales in key cities were generally stable. According to preliminary statistics from the China Index Academy, in September, new residential transaction area in 100 key cities was approximately 17 million square meters, up about 9% month-on-month and down about 7% year-on-year. Among them, first-tier cities grew 10% year-on-year in September, with Beijing and Shanghai growing 20% and 22% respectively.
The "warming" of the property market during the National Day holiday is closely related to the series of policy "combination punches" recently introduced. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Centaline Property, pointed out that this year's National Day holiday coincided with the official implementation of the first-home commercial loan interest subsidy policy starting October 1, combined with the commercial housing sales system reform launched on August 28, optimization of provident fund policies across regions, and personal income tax rebates for selling old homes and buying new ones — a package of policies taking effect together, forming this round of "Golden September and Silver October" policy "combination punches."
During visits, reporters found that policy effects have initially emerged. Zhang Xiaochuan, sales manager of the Bangtai Langjing project in Nanchang, Jiangxi, introduced that during the National Day holiday, the project's market heat significantly recovered, and the sales absorption pace notably accelerated. Over the seven days of the National Day holiday, the project accumulated over 200 visiting customer groups, an increase of about 60% compared to the total visiting customers across all weekends in September, with cumulative subscriptions approaching 30 units. Among these, the interest subsidy policy played a notable driving role. In Zhang Xiaochuan's view, the interest subsidy policy eased the monthly payment pressure on potential customers. "Previously, many customers were in a wait-and-see state, with the main pressure coming from monthly payments. After the new policy came out, these customers specifically came during the National Day holiday to inquire whether they qualified for interest subsidies. The policy effectively stimulated potential customers to walk into sales offices."
Yan Yuejin, deputy director of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the interest subsidy policy, along with previously existing measures such as down payment reductions, interest rate cuts, and provident fund support, has brought the home-buying environment into a new stage of policy easing. Currently, the real estate market is being actively boosted, housing prices are stabilizing, the pace of homebuyers entering the market has significantly accelerated, and good houses, good products, and good projects are successively entering the market.
Regarding the next stage of the property market trend, the industry generally believes that the pattern of core cities stabilizing first will continue, but market differentiation will persist. A representative from the China Index Academy stated that since the third quarter of this year, the real estate market has generally continued its bottoming trend, with differentiation still relatively obvious. New home sales remain at a low level, with first-tier cities performing relatively well; second-hand home transactions continue to grow, further increasing their share in housing transactions, as the market enters the stock era. In terms of prices, second-hand home prices continue their adjustment trend, while quality projects in core cities provide some support for average new home prices. "Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the market is expected to continue its existing bottoming trend, with the impact of new policies further manifesting next year," said the representative from the China Index Academy.
Zhang Dawei stated that looking ahead to future trends, the market will most likely continue a pattern of structural repair and sustained differentiation. Market differentiation will be a fundamental characteristic of the real estate market for a considerable period ahead, industry transformation remains ongoing, and confidence recovery will require a longer cycle.