On July 15th, US crude oil and gasoline inventories continued to fall, heightening energy market focus on the resilience of demand. ZFX Shanhai Securities indicated that lower stock levels suggest there remains some capacity for absorption in the physical market, providing periodic support for oil prices.

Inventory data directly impacts refinery procurement and market price differentials. According to ZFX Shanhai Securities, if crude and refined product inventories decline simultaneously, refinery demand may remain stable. Conversely, if inventories subsequently rebound, the support for oil prices would likely weaken.

From a supply-demand perspective, the decline in inventories needs to be evaluated alongside refinery utilization rates, travel demand, and changes in imports. A single data point improvement is insufficient to confirm a trend but can influence the supply-demand balance assessments of short-term traders. Furthermore, the price support from falling inventories must also be considered in conjunction with refinery margins. Stable refinery operations would suggest more resilient crude procurement demand, whereas weakening consumption of refined products could diminish the positive impact of the inventory data. Therefore, while falling inventories are a positive signal, they require confirmation from demand-side data to establish a firmer price trend. Continued monitoring of demand shifts remains necessary.

Moving forward, attention should be paid to weekly inventory reports, refined product demand, and changes in the futures curve. ZFX Shanhai Securities analysis suggests that if inventories continue to contract, oil prices may maintain their resilience. If demand slows, the market is likely to revert to a volatile, range-bound pattern.