On June 10, COHERENT fell 3.07% in pre-market trading to $345.02/share, with trading volume of $4.95 million, extending the prior session's 11% plunge as selling pressure in the optical communication sector persists.
The decline follows a report published by SemiAnalysis on June 9 that simultaneously downgraded the outlook for CPO (co-packaged optics) commercialization and NVIDIA's 800VDC high-voltage power architecture. The report argues that large-scale CPO deployment has been pushed back to 2028-2029, significantly later than the market's prior consensus of 2027 full-volume production. Core bottlenecks cited include low optical engine yield, high ASIC-optical integration difficulty, and unfavorable cost economics versus traditional pluggable modules. Consequently, the broader optical communication sector was hit hard on June 9, with AAOI down 17%, POET down 12%, Corning down over 7%, and Lumentum down over 8%.
Despite NVIDIA's networking SVP Gilad Shainer publicly rebutting the report at Computex — stating CPO shipments remain on track for H2 ramp — market panic has not fully subsided. COHERENT's fundamentals remain supported by NVIDIA's $2 billion strategic investment and strong 1.6T transceiver demand, though short-term sentiment continues to weigh on the stock.
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