A previously undisclosed maritime blockade plan from the era of the former Supreme Leader of Iran has been brought to light, revealing a strategy that extends beyond the Persian Gulf to encompass several other critical global shipping lanes, including the Gulf of Oman, the Red Sea, and the eastern Mediterranean. The scope of this planning is far more extensive than previously understood by outside observers.
Fifteen years ago, as international concern over Iran's nuclear program was intensifying, the then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had already instructed the military to develop plans for blocking strategic straits in a worst-case scenario.
This historical detail was disclosed this week by the late Supreme Leader's military advisor, Major General Rahim Safavi, during an interview with Iranian state television.
Safavi recounted, "He called me and demanded a complete plan for closing the Strait of Hormuz. I had requested three months to prepare, but he compressed the timeline to just one month... He had already foreseen that we would eventually need to use this leverage."
According to his account, the contingency plan was not limited to the Persian Gulf but was designed to extend to multiple vital sea routes, including the Gulf of Oman, the Red Sea, and the eastern Mediterranean.
For over a decade, the primary focus of international engagement with Iran revolved around its nuclear program, involving sanctions and repeated negotiations. It was only after a joint U.S.-Israel airstrike targeted Iranian nuclear facilities for twelve days last year that the issue of controlling strategic straits rapidly gained prominence.
Following the airstrike that damaged Iran's main uranium enrichment facility, Tehran reportedly activated this blockade plan for the first time in practice. An insider within the Iranian regime stated, "There was room for negotiation on the nuclear issue, but there is no room for compromise on the Strait of Hormuz."
Control of the strait has become Iran's most powerful bargaining chip since the escalation of hostilities. In the past, Iran's threats to block the strait were often dismissed by the international community as mere rhetoric. Iranian leaders consistently maintained that such a drastic measure would only be employed in a full-scale war that threatened the nation's survival.
The conflict escalated in February of this year following a joint U.S.-Israel airstrike. This attack resulted in the deaths of Khamenei and several other senior officials, with U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stating their goal was to overthrow the current Iranian regime.
In response, Iran launched attacks on U.S. military bases in the Middle East, on Israeli territory, and against Gulf states, while also imposing a blockade on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to the conflict, this waterway handled one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, and its closure directly triggered a severe global energy crisis.
The key point of contention that caused the breakdown of a memorandum of understanding in June, which was intended to establish a framework for peace talks, remained the issue of control over the strait.
According to the memorandum, the U.S. was to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran would gradually resume traffic through the strait. However, after the U.S. began directing commercial vessels to use alternative routes along the Omani coast, the Iranian military started targeting ships it deemed to be using "unauthorized routes." Tehran insists that jurisdiction over the strait must remain with Iran for the duration of the conflict.
Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, commented, "For the first time since the U.S. initiated economic sanctions in the 1980s, Iran possesses a symmetric means of retaliation capable of directly impacting the U.S. domestic economy."
He believes Iran aims to signal to the U.S. that renewed conflict would trigger another round of global economic disruption.
Iran's refusal to concede on the strait issue is exacting a growing economic toll. Iran has proposed that any future peace agreement must grant it and Oman exclusive authority over the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Several members of the Iranian parliament also unveiled legislative plans this week aimed at formally codifying the country's governance rights over the strait.
Senior parliamentarian Hamid-Reza Hajibabaei told local media, "Our real main battlefield is the Strait of Hormuz, its importance far exceeds the nuclear issue." He described the waterway as Iran's "strategic high ground" in its confrontation with the United States.
Following the collapse of the June provisional agreement, the brief period of economic respite Iran had gained quickly vanished. An Iranian diplomat revealed that internal divisions within the regime are widening. Pragmatists fear the blockade will worsen the economic crisis, while hardliners advocate maintaining a firm grip on the strait.
Analyses by several institutions estimate that if the blockade persists for four to five months, Iran's oil revenue could approach zero. Prior to the recent escalation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had projected Iran's GDP would contract by 5.4% this year.
Economist Hadi Kahalzadeh, a former official with Iran's social security organization, warned, "A new round of blockade will exacerbate the hardships faced by the people, leading to continued currency devaluation, high inflation, shortages of goods, factory shutdowns, and mass unemployment. The most critical issue is that the market sees no clear timeline for economic stabilization, plunging the country into indefinite stagnation."