Event: On May 9, the General Administration of Customs released China's foreign trade data for April 2026. Measured in US dollars, exports in April increased by 14.1% year-on-year, compared to a 2.5% rise in March. Imports grew by 25.3% year-on-year, down from 27.8% in March. The trade surplus stood at $84.824 billion, a decrease of $11.055 billion compared to the same period last year.

Core View: April's export growth exceeded expectations, confirming that the previous month's slowdown was primarily due to distortions from the Lunar New Year holiday. Against a backdrop of rising price expectations, overseas restocking demand, and sustained high investment activity in the global AI industry chain, exports continue to demonstrate strong resilience. In terms of products, high-value-added categories such as integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment performed notably well. Although import growth slightly moderated, the total import value reached a new record high, also driven by the AI industry chain and price increases for some bulk commodities. However, overall, the trade surplus for the first four months was slightly lower than last year, suggesting that the contribution of net exports to GDP growth may have declined.

With the holiday distortion factor subsiding and rising price expectations creating a pulse effect, exports surpassed expectations. April's export growth of 14.1% represented an 11.6 percentage point increase from March. On a month-on-month basis, April's growth of 12.00% was significantly stronger than the average -0.26% for the same period over the past four years, indicating performance well above seasonal norms. On one hand, the holiday-related distortion that depressed last month's export figures has faded, with April returning to a normal production rhythm, leading to a rebound. Concurrently, the high base effect from the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in the same period last year has eased. On the other hand, while tensions in the Middle East showed some signs of easing in April, negotiations remained slow, potentially prompting overseas buyers to stockpile inventory amid expectations of further price increases.

Global manufacturing activity remains at a relatively high level, with robust AI investment demand. Regarding external demand, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI averaged 52.6% in April, up 1.3 percentage points from March. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and Japan Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.6 and 3.5 percentage points to 52.2% and 55.1%, respectively. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.7%. PMI readings for the US, Europe, and Japan all remained above the 50-point expansion-contraction threshold, reflecting stable demand in developed economies. Furthermore, South Korea's Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.6% in March, with export growth that month still reaching a high 47.99%, including a remarkable 171.45% growth in semiconductor exports, indicating sustained strong global demand for AI-related investments.

Export growth to the United States, the European Union, ASEAN, and Japan rebounded to varying degrees, with exports to the US turning positive. Compared to March 2026, export growth to the US, EU, ASEAN, and Japan increased by 37.81, 4.8, 8.36, and 0.72 percentage points to 11.31%, 13.43%, 15.22%, and 4.04%, respectively. The significant rebound in exports to the US was partly influenced by a low base from the previous year. In terms of contribution, the US, Japan, Europe, and ASEAN contributed 6.28 percentage points to the overall export growth; other regions contributed 7.64 percentage points, with exports to Africa making a notable contribution, as its export growth rebounded by 14.22 percentage points from March to 17.3%.

Exports of high-end manufactured goods remain robust. In April, exports of high-tech products, mechanical and electrical products, and agricultural products rebounded to varying degrees, with growth rates increasing by 7.8, 9.1, and 9.9 percentage points from the previous month to 39.2%, 20.3%, and 3.8%, respectively. Among major products, export growth for integrated circuits further accelerated to 99.6%, marking four consecutive months of growth. Exports of automatic data processing equipment also rose to 47.3%, both reflecting persistently strong global demand for AI investments. Additionally, automobile export growth remained relatively high, while the previously strong growth in ship exports saw a noticeable decline. Labor-intensive products remained weak; although exports of furniture, luggage, lighting fixtures, footwear, and garments showed some recovery, their growth rates remained negative.

Although import growth moderated slightly, the total import value reached a new record high. April imports amounted to $274.618 billion, setting a new monthly historical record. Among major products, automatic data processing equipment (90.6%, +60.4 pct) and upstream raw materials like unwrought copper and copper products (38.4%, +17.5 pct) showed significant rebounds. Imports of integrated circuits (54.7%, +1.0 pct) remained at a high level, indicating resilient demand from the AI and related industry chains. Influenced by rising prices for upstream energy-related materials due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, crude oil import growth turned positive (13.2%, +17.6 pct). Conversely, imports of resource products like copper ore and refined oil products, as well as chemical products like fertilizers, saw notable declines.

Risk Warning: Domestic policy implementation may fall short of expectations; renewed conflict between the US and Iran.