Nickel prices on the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals market saw a slight decrease today, with spot market transactions remaining subdued.

Shanghai Nickel Futures Performance

Shanghai nickel futures experienced a range-bound decline in the afternoon session. The main July 2026 contract opened at 134,010 yuan per tonne, reaching an intraday high of 136,280 yuan and a low of 133,080 yuan. It closed at 136,140 yuan, down 120 yuan or 0.09%. Trading volume for the main July contract was 144,718 lots.

Current Spot Nickel Prices

According to data from Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network, the comprehensive 1# nickel price on June 22nd was quoted between 133,350 yuan and 134,950 yuan per tonne, averaging 134,150 yuan. This represents a decrease of 2,600 yuan from the previous day. The spot 1# nickel price in the Changjiang region was also between 133,350 yuan and 134,950 yuan, averaging 134,150 yuan, down 2,650 yuan. In Guangdong, spot nickel was quoted from 134,850 yuan to 135,250 yuan per tonne, with an average of 135,050 yuan, marking a drop of 2,500 yuan.

Key Macroeconomic Influences

The global market focus on June 22, 2026, remained on the ongoing impact of the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which has fueled expectations for interest rate hikes within the year. This has completely reversed the earlier market bets on rate cuts, driving U.S. Treasury yields higher and strengthening the U.S. dollar. The dollar index remains strong in the near term, supported by Fed policy, resilient U.S. economic data, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In the medium to long term, it faces pressure from the twin deficits and global de-dollarization trends. U.S. stock markets are experiencing high-level volatility with diverging performances; AI and tech stocks show relative resilience, while high interest rates continue to weigh on growth stock valuations. Concurrently, rising inflation and a shift towards more hawkish policies in several overseas countries are persistently affecting global capital flows and asset pricing.

Supply and Demand Dynamics for Nickel Raw Materials

Laterite Nickel Ore: Quotas for mining in Indonesia have tightened, but increased shipments from the Philippines during the dry season are offsetting some of the tightness, leading to slightly softer ore prices. Sulfide Nickel Ore: Resources are scarce, with limited new production capacity coming online, keeping supply tight. Nickel Matte: Production increases are falling short of expectations due to constraints in ore supply and auxiliary materials. Nickel-Cobalt Hydroxide: High sulfur prices are hampering operations, limiting smelting activity. Recycled Nickel: Incremental supply from scrap recovery is limited, providing only a modest supplement to market availability.

Current Status of the Nickel Industry Chain

The stainless steel sector has entered its traditional off-season. Steel mills are pushing down procurement prices, and finished product inventories are accumulating. Demand for ternary batteries in the new energy sector remains stable, but the recovery in production schedules is slow, insufficient to offset the overall weakness in traditional demand. Refined nickel inventories continue to build up, spot market transactions are weak, and the industrial sector lacks positive catalysts to drive prices higher.

Market Outlook and Short-Term Price Forecast

From June 22nd to 23rd, a series of key domestic and international macroeconomic data and events are scheduled. Overseas markets will see the release of preliminary manufacturing PMI data for the Eurozone, the UK, and the US, coupled with concentrated remarks from several Federal Reserve officials. These will continue to sway market expectations regarding interest rate hikes and directly influence the strength of the U.S. dollar. Domestically, the Summer Davos Forum officially opens on the 23rd, with the market keenly interpreting accompanying growth-stabilization measures and industrial economic data, which may introduce periodic volatility based on policy expectations.

Going forward, key variables to monitor include the trajectory of the U.S. dollar, Indonesia's nickel ore supply policies, and restocking activity in the downstream stainless steel sector. Currently, negative macroeconomic sentiment has not been fully absorbed, and high industry inventories are capping upward momentum. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in a wide, weak, and volatile range, with limited room for a significant rebound. Only the cost support from the ore sector provides a floor, suggesting the market will likely continue to fluctuate within a defined range.