GTHT has released a research report indicating that the price inversion between Chinese and American medical gloves will first trigger a rebalancing of regional supply and demand dynamics. As external disruptions subside and regional supply-demand equilibrium is restored, the industry will gradually transition into a new competitive landscape. The firm anticipates that supply chain efficiency and comprehensive cost control will remain key themes, while Chinese manufacturers' overseas capacity expansion introduces a new variable to the global landscape. GTHT's key viewpoints are as follows.
US Imports: Volume up, Prices down, with Competition as the Core Price Driver
1) Volume: US demand continues to grow, defying expectations of a decline. The March 2026 US-Iran conflict tightened petrochemical raw material supply, with a notable contraction in nitrile latex availability in Southeast Asia, driving market speculation around supply gaps. However, US import data for nitrile gloves shows volume growth in both April and May, individually and combined.
2) Price: Raw material prices are elevated, yet import prices are at historical lows. Post-conflict, prices for raw materials like butadiene surged, and nitrile latex shortages should have led to higher glove prices. However, US Customs data shows that import prices for medical gloves in April-May 2026 were at multi-year lows, even lower than during the same period in 2025 when raw material prices were already depressed.
Chinese Exports: Volume and Price Rising, with Smooth Transmission
1) Volume: China's Q2 exports reached a new high since 2022. After absorbing the impact of sharp declines in US exports, China's medical glove export growth bottomed out in November 2025 and has remained positive since 2026, with growth accelerating due to supply disruptions in external markets.
2) Differences in competitive landscapes explain the significant gap between China's export prices and US import prices. China's medical glove export average prices rose sharply in Q2 2026. This is because domestic exports were impacted by low overall profitability following overcapacity during the pandemic, compounded by the 2025 collapse in US exports. This amplified supply-demand pressure, leading to a gradual contraction of domestic capacity, with a stronger industry drive for price increases and margin improvement.
Price Inversion Between China and US Markets Triggers Regional Supply-Demand Rebalancing
Due to the aforementioned supply differences between the US and non-US markets, in May 2026, China's average export price for medical gloves to non-US markets exceeded the average US import price, creating a rare price inversion. This will inevitably incentivize Southeast Asian manufacturers capable of selling to non-US markets to increase their sales allocation there to improve margins, while simultaneously easing the rapid expansion of supply to the US. This will likely lift US import prices and exert downward pressure on China's export prices.
Capacity Utilization Remains Low, Supply Elasticity Exists, and Cost Curves Are Key Variables
Taking Malaysia's largest glove manufacturer, Top Glove, as an example, its installed capacity for FY2025 was 95 billion pieces, with operating capacity of 64 billion pieces and capacity utilization of only 50-70%. Similar conditions exist for other Malaysian and Thai glove manufacturers. Therefore, when market prices and profitability are high, some idle capacity may be brought back online, putting downward pressure on prices. Consequently, strategically squeezing market prices and controlling industry supply may become a key competitive strategy for industry leaders, with the cost curve being the underlying consideration.
Risk Factors
Downside risks include weaker-than-expected downstream demand and intensified industry competition.