Abstract

Total SA will report second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, 2026 Pre-MKt; this preview compiles market expectations, last quarter performance, and current quarter drivers to frame likely outcomes across refining, LNG, and integrated power.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of 53.35 billion US dollars with forecast year-over-year growth of 42.53%, EBIT of 10.42 billion US dollars with year-over-year growth of 88.07%, and adjusted EPS of 2.55 with year-over-year growth of 55.54%; the company’s margin mix is expected to reflect downstream strength and steady net profitability, while consensus does not provide explicit gross margin and net margin forecasts. The primary business is refining and chemicals with resilient throughput and spreads, while integrated power appears the most promising growth engine; integrated power revenue is 6.17 billion US dollars and shows accelerating year-over-year expansion according to the company’s segment disclosures.

Last Quarter Review

Total SA posted last quarter revenue of 54.16 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 44.77%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.81 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 11.73%, and adjusted EPS of 2.45 with year-over-year growth of 33.88%. Quarter-on-quarter net profit growth was 99.93%, reflecting a sharp recovery alongside supportive downstream margins and disciplined capex. Main business highlights include refining and chemicals revenue of 32.23 billion US dollars alongside marketing and services at 16.13 billion US dollars; integrated power reached 6.17 billion US dollars, while integrated LNG contributed 5.74 billion US dollars.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Refining and Chemicals

Refining and chemicals is expected to anchor quarterly performance, supported by persistent cracks on gasoline and middle distillates and normalized turnaround schedules. The prior quarter’s revenue footprint of 32.23 billion US dollars positions the segment to benefit from seasonal demand in OECD markets and tighter supply from ongoing maintenance across global complexes. Margin sensitivity remains tied to crude differentials and petrochemical spreads; a favorable Brent-Urals differential and improved ethylene/polymer pricing could sustain gross margin near recent levels. Operational reliability and utilization rates will be important to defend EBIT guidance, especially as product inventories track below five-year averages in key regions.

Most Promising Business: Integrated Power

Integrated power shows the clearest multi-quarter growth trajectory, helped by capacity additions in renewables, improved capture prices, and expanding retail power footprints. With 6.17 billion US dollars in last quarter revenue, the segment’s scale enables operating leverage as wholesale prices stabilize and merchant exposure is hedged. Growth is driven by project deliveries, higher availability factors, and customer acquisition in power markets where Total SA is increasing its share. Potential catalysts include closing of contracted PPAs, commissioning of utility-scale solar and storage, and optimization of trading and flexibility portfolios that enhance margin resilience through volatile hours.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Share performance this quarter will track realized downstream cracks, guidance for integrated power EBITDA and capacity additions, and updates on LNG contracting. Any revision to capital allocation—particularly buybacks relative to free cash flow—will influence sentiment. The forecast swing factors also include macro drivers such as Brent price trends and refining margins, as well as clarity on project timelines across LNG and renewables. Investors will weigh management’s commentary on net debt trajectory and distribution framework to gauge sustainability of shareholder returns.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish and cautious views appear balanced among institutions during the six-month window, with no clear majority side emerging from available commentary, while notable coverage emphasizes earnings resilience from downstream and the accelerating contribution of integrated power. Analysts highlight the potential for EPS to overshoot if refining margins hold through July and if integrated power volumes meet plan, citing consensus EPS at 2.55 and revenue near 53.35 billion US dollars. Some commentary also points to operational discipline and cost control as supportive, with forecasts anchored around EBIT of 10.42 billion US dollars and strong year-over-year growth metrics across key lines.