A research report from Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. (ASX: 601211) indicates that average daily sales for retail and catering enterprises sustained their recovery during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday period, with overall volumes maintaining growth. Consumer spending remained relatively rational, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption. The improvement trend for mass consumer products is well established, while baijiu is accelerating its clearing process. The report recommends growth-oriented and oversold targets: 1) baijiu is accelerating its bottoming-out, with recommendations for targets that are the first to clear inventory; 2) condiments and catering supply chains offer elasticity for both volume and price recovery; 3) health foods in an industry upcycle and select snack categories are recommended; 4) beer off-take is picking up pace during peak season; 5) beverages offer growth potential; 6) dairy products.
Business district revenue maintains growth as high travel volumes support scene-based demand
Data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that during the Mid-Autumn Festival, average daily sales for key national retail and catering enterprises grew 6.1% year-on-year. In the first three days of the National Day holiday, foot traffic in monitored business districts increased 3.4% while revenue rose 5.3%. During the three-day Mid-Autumn holiday, cross-regional population flows across society reached 643.161 million person-trips, averaging 214.387 million per day, up 2.2% compared to the 2024 Mid-Autumn Festival. In the first four days of the National Day holiday, cross-regional population flows totaled 1.244 billion person-trips, essentially flat year-on-year, with extended holiday arrangements driving active demand for medium- and long-distance inter-provincial travel and return trips. Overall holiday consumption continues to recover, with consumer spending remaining relatively rational. High cost-performance products and subsidized consumption are popular, service spending outpaces goods spending, and county-level and local specialty scenes have become important sources of incremental growth.
Baijiu: Peak season subdued as National Day mirrors Mid-Autumn performance
The baijiu industry saw relatively lackluster off-take during the 2026 dual-holiday period. With the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays separated this year, and no significant acceleration observed during National Day, which serves as an important gifting and banquet window, baijiu off-take trends during National Day are expected to be broadly in line with Mid-Autumn, with dual-holiday baijiu sales volumes projected to decline year-on-year. In contrast, baijiu prices performed better than volumes. September shipments caused high-end baijiu wholesale prices to edge lower, but overall market confidence in pricing remained intact. In terms of structure, market divergence during the dual holidays remained pronounced, with the high-end price segment and the 100-300 yuan mass-market segment performing relatively well, and leading brands at each price point delivering the best performance. Overall, baijiu has shifted from being driven by channel shipments and inventory loading to being driven by genuine off-take. Brands are no longer aggressively pushing task volumes, supply-side discipline is maintained during peak season, and actual channel off-take performance is expected to be better than distillery shipment figures, with the industry continuing its inventory reduction trend.
Mass consumer products: Concentrated catering demand during holidays, with family gatherings and travel bringing incremental scene-based demand
Mid-Autumn catering primarily served family reunions and gatherings among friends and relatives, while National Day catering focused on tourist dining, local leisure, and cross-city exploration scenes. Snack sector momentum diverged, with volume retail channels maintaining a relative advantage. By category, health-oriented snacks such as high-protein and low-GI products saw notably increased popularity, with certain niche new products growing rapidly and offering significant future potential.
Risk warnings: Increased macroeconomic volatility, intensifying industry competition, food safety risks.